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naraburns  nihil supernum  1yr ago (text post)   31225 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of January 9, 2023

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When they are fully "mature", aka at Japan levels of income, China will far eclipse the U.S. as a world power due to having 4x the population, and probably 10x the population of +3 std IQ people.

Which is why we may see the US kneecap them by embroiling Taiwan into a conflict with PRC by pushing Taipei to declare independence etc. It's certainly the smart thing to do if you're the top dog and what I'd have done if I were in 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. Why wait for your rival to get stronger?

One should also add that China may only have 500 million people at the end of this century due to their TFR only being ~1 per woman now and will likely fall even lower as they get richer. Meanwhile, the US could potentially even pass them by the 2090s. If America is still a richer country (big if) then the so-called 'Chinese century' may in fact never materialise. I think America's superpower is that it is better than anyone else at drawing in skilled migrants, something China can never copy.

In addition, America has a very large friendship network. So just comparing China and America on their own is probably a mistake. In my view, while China is unlikely to be subdued it is also unlikely to replace the US as the global hegemon.

One should also add that China may only have 500 million people at the end of this century due to their TFR only being ~1 per woman now and will likely fall even lower as they get richer.

I wonder if China will be able to mandate higher fertility. It's certainly possible. Other regimes have tried and failed, but China I think could do it. Here's how:

"City residency permits are reserved for those with children. Want to stay unmarried? That's fine, go live as a rural peasant".

"Children with siblings are given first choice admission to universities".

Of course, with so many single young men and a massive gender imbalance this could prove a bit tricky.

But even if they don't fix fertility, China will still have 20-30 years of great economic growth before the real declines start. And in any case, according to UN medium fertility variants, China will still have 777 million people by 2100 compared to 395 million in the United States. And of course I don't have to tell you that the U.S. demographics are highly dysgenic. In terms of demographics, the U.S. in 2100 will be closer to today's Brazil than to our current state. No one is projecting Brazil as a future world power.

Other regimes have tried and failed, but China I think could do it. Here's how:

Silly question, but has any regime tried banning contraceptives?

Good question. I don't know. But I do know that people were already worried about birth rates in ancient Rome so presumably it's not enough.

Communist Romania in 1966.

Well, that's underwhelming. Anything in particular happen in 1963?

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