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Notes -
Scenario A - Good Fences Make Good Neighbors
Trump attempts to assert federal authority. Blue states defy him, and organize around making that defiance as effective as possible. Blue tribe wins an election, and attempts to assert federal authority. Red Tribe states defy them, and organize around making that defiance as effective as possible.
The norm of strong federal control over the states dies. Without a superpowerful federal government to fight over, conflict between the tribes decreases, as each realizes that imposing its will on the other is simply not worth the effort; better to facilitate population transfers of those unsatisfied with their current tribal environment, and let history sort it all out. Legitimate federalism defuses much of the culture war, as people are free to pursue their values in their own regions, and to move if this is impractical.
Scenario B - The Land of Peace and Plenty
One tribe or the other delivers unquestionably effective governance, even by the other tribe's standards; significantly better schooling outcomes even for inner-city black kids, notably effective and just law enforcement, a clear road out of the long-term economic stagnation, an automation revolution leading to an explosion of wealth and dramatically-increased living standards, etc, etc.
Much of the current mess is driven by policy starvation, moderate political approaches chronically unable to deliver the goods, leading to the public turning away to the increasingly radical fringes in search of still-credible policy options. One side or the other actually delivering undeniable policy wins even from the perspective of the opposing tribe could possibly defuse the escalation spiral as people adopt policies that actually work. From the Blues, this might be YIMBYs or the Abundance guys. From the right, it might be things like the Mississippi Miracle or Trump's crime crackdown, which seems to have been drawing support recently even from scattered democrats. Admittedly, this seems like more of a long shot, but there's some evidence that a lot of even our most serious problems might actually be choices, and if that fact could be made stark enough, people might choose differently.
I think your scenario A is off the table for now; even Newsom has not been able to resist Trump's authority.
Scenario B is not happening also. Because even if Trump could deliver that effective governance and to the Democrats it would never be enough. It would be bad because Trump was doing it. And because he can't; e.g. delivering notably better schooling outcomes for inner-city black kids is beyond the President's power. He's doing best on immigration enforcement; despite all the cries, the horror stories are limited. Where's all the brown US citizens black-bagged and dumped in Tijuana? I've heard of one held for 3 days, which is bad but the ordinary sort of bad that happened every day before Trump.
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