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Notes -
I'm curious what you'd be willing to bet on the condition that such a bill never makes it to the House and Senate floor for a final vote, conditional on Trump surviving (and not being comatose, Biden-esque, yada) to January 2029? Because at 80% confidence... well, I won't call it free money, but I'd be willing to bet at greater odds the opposite direction.
Assuming Trump’s still alive and functional enough to exert the at least the same level of pressure on GOP Congress-critters that he can currently… I’d be willing to wager $100 (probably the limit on how much I’m willing to drop on this kind of bet) that either some kind of bill along those lines gets proposed, passes committee, and goes to a floor vote in at least one chamber… Or that SCOTUS effectively overturns the 22nd Amendment first, and makes it a moot point (I’m skeptical that’d be the first line of attack, but IDK).
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[Granted, I’m predicating the above scenario on the assumption that the GOP will probably have a roughly similar narrow majority in Congress, so on the {IMO unlikely} chance they get utterly shellacked in the midterms, I guess that could affect the odds… But IDK in which direction, a rump GOP Congress might decide Trump’s past his expiration date and try to turn on him… Or they could double-down on supporting him and support the bill knowing it won’t pass so they can claim “they tried”. Hard to say.]
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