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"I'm back. I forgot my drum."
I had Gemini vibe code this chart of relative changes in debt to GDP over the course of the presidential terms starting from 1966 when the FRED data starts. Of the 11 past presidents (plus Trump I) in the dataset, 5 ended with a debt to GDP ratio better than the one they started with. So knowing nothing about a president at all, we should expect a 45% chance that the deficit to GDP ratio will fall over their tenure. Despite being such a believer in Trump's abilities, you think he's only a little bit better than the base rate in this department.
Trump's first term of course was ruinous for the debt to GDP ratio, but let's let him off the hook because COVID (the massive spike was during Trump's term, not Biden's).
Biden left office with debt to GDP slightly lower than when he came in. Is your prediction here that basically Trump is going to have a similar effect on debt to GDP as Biden did? Not only did Biden manage a modest decrease as well, he was the only guy who managed to reduce debt to GDP by at least 5pp at some point during his term except Clinton! All this without 4D tariff nonsense, but for Trump we have to consider trusting the plan to get the same result, because...?
If we're gonna impoverish people with tariffs, job losses, breaking of government norms, and the rest of Trumponomics, is the best that we can expect simply a replacement-level reduction in debt to GDP? If that's what you consider "a start", you should be singing Biden's praises for giving us that start.
Consider me unimpressed.
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