sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
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User ID: 636
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
2hr ago
After domestic chips become better than H200 (or rather, domestic systems + power subsidy become competitive with Nvidia clusters) and there's wide adoption of Huawei CANN and Cambricon NeuWare, I predict that they will relax controls on imported chips, maybe replacing it with a simple tariff. Your model suggests that they will tighten controls. It's an empirical matter, we will see in a matter of 2 years, most likely.
Hardly. If Chinese chips become better than the best Nvidia has to offer, there is, as you say, little reason to ban imports since approximately nobody will want to use them. EVs are a good example - how many Chinese people buy American EVs? I'd assume the number is approximately zero since American EVs are about 5x the price for a comparable product.
Of course, if Chinese chips are better than Nvidia's best, the prospects for Nvidia market share become quite slim. You seem to want it both ways - Nvidia exports to China will ensure Nvidia's dominance in China (lock in! Efficiency! Yields!), but also China is going to ensure that domestic chips are the market leader.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
2hr ago
Sure, let's throw that in to the consumption number.
That brings us to 46% for China and 65% for the US based on the numbers above, once we apply the increase from the text you quoted. Still, the gap is fairly significant.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
3hr ago
How is it not supposed to help? Money is good, market share is good.
We were just discussing long vs short term thinking. Money and market share are the short term returns, the question is about the long term.
In a more relaxed geopolitical environment, they may not even stop 100%, just like they're still buying high-end Western CNC machines, despite being able to make functionally similar ones now. Nvidia will still have better yields, lower unit prices, higher power efficiency, more polished software, likely for decades. It's not like they have a philosophical commitment to not buy at all, they are simply focused on becoming strategically invulnerable to export controls after years of American gloating about how they'll fall behind and die, starting with Huawei.
We're not in a more relaxed geopolitical environment. We're in an environment where China is doing everything it can to stimulate domestic chip production including by banning imports of certain chips in the first place, which sounds like a philosophical commitment to not buying at all to me.
If you believe that China is interested in being invulnerable to export controls and you believe that Nvidia use can lead to lock-in, it follows that China's strategy would be to avoid the lock-in in the first place, which means that there is no long term market for Nvidia chips in China.
The main argument against this has nothing to do with Chinese plans to stop buying chips later
Correct. I brought up the other argument in a previous thread where you responded with a non-sequitur about orange man having bad trade policy. Here I'm limiting myself strictly to your claim that chip exports would be beneficial in the long run for Nvidia.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
3hr ago
This feels like a misdirection. The price level of China vs the US doesn't matter for the question of how much of Chinese GDP is household consumption. In each case the ratio can be calculated in local currency without any need for PPP adjustments.
The article you linked is (apparently, based on your excerpts) discussing correct PPP factors based on household expenditures, which is really not the same question at all.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
6hr ago
I still don't understand how exporting chips to China is supposed to help the US in the long run when the Chinese long run plan is to not import chips.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
6hr ago
Chinese consumption is not that low, read this.
It's paywalled. What does PPP have to do with the fraction of Chinese household income that goes to consumption?
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
13hr ago
This is why I buy gifts for my wife from my personal slush fund.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
1d ago
You've made the classic blunder of confusing the screen size and the device size. The pixel 1 is about 6.3" on the diagonal. Later phones are closer to their screen size with the advent of tiny bezels.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
2d ago
Singapore produces lots of useful goods. Key exports include refined petroleum, integrated circuits, computers, electronics and telecommunications equipment, pharmaceuticals, and chemicals. They also have a large financial sector. It's not necessarily bad to have a large financial sector but it doesn't contribute so much to wealth as industrial production.
Industry of any kind accounts for just 25% of Singaporean GDP. 75% comes from services. Singapore is a country that is prosperous from providing services, not exports.
Trading firms make profits via high speed trading. Those profits then move out into the rest of the economy via wages, dividends, investment. Therefore high speed trading is effectively part of GDP, despite not being very productive.
This is a sleight of hand. You say HST is part of GDP despite not being productive. But buying and selling stocks does not contribute to GDP.
An HST firm makes a profit on a trade and pays an employee his salary. The employee gets a haircut and pays the barber. What part of this story is included in GDP? It's the haircut, not the trade.
GDP doesn't just measure goods and services produced in an area, it measures imaginary fabrications as well, without regard for the desirability and quality of the activity in question.
Is imputed rent the only such "imaginary fabrication" in your view? Seems easy enough to just take it out of the equation.
GDP is just particularly flawed.
Compared to what?
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
3d ago
Real assets (houses, cars, most real foods) have had a real increase in price over the last 50 years, reflecting a real chipping away at living standards here in the west.
Houses are more expensive (in some countries due to government policy aiming to secure this outcome as part of retirement planning for boomers), the food thing is going to be a goalpost moving exercise, but you're simply wrong about cars. Median nominal earnings growth has vastly outstripped growth in car prices for decades.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
3d ago
Imputed rent is not a real thing, it's imaginary. Enjoying a house that's built is the whole point of a house, that's why people buy them.
Obviously, but it would be even weirder if renters contributed to GDP but homeowners didn't.
Building engines is measured as part of GDP. It's going to be investment for somebody who finally buys the plane or perhaps an export, this is one of the fields where US manufacturing still leads the world.
I covered the export case already. If the engine isn't exported and is instead bought by Boeing the value of the engine is not explicitly counted in GDP (hence final goods and services). Best you can say is that if the engine weren't made here it would need to be imported which would subtract from GDP.
More importantly, building engines is clearly related to prosperity, technology, productivity and national power, which is what GDP is really supposed to be telling us about.
Singapore is highly prosperous. How many jet engines do they produce? There's more than one way to prosperity and it's a mistake for you to shoehorn your vision of what it looks like into what GDP is actually measuring - the amount of goods and services produced in an area.
High frequency trading makes money, their workers certainly earn wages. I would be highly surprised that they weren't counted as part of GDP.
Capital gains, trades, etc do not contribute to GDP by definition.
Stuff trading firm employees buy with their salaries counts as GDP, but they mostly don't spend their money on the financial sector.
Anyway, one of my points is that GDP is not that helpful as a measurement, so if production of engines wasn't included, then it would only strengthen my argument. But since it is, why bring it up? Where exactly engines belong on some accounting category doesn't seem very useful.
It's useful for measuring goods and services produced in an area and the material standard of living. It's not useful for comparing who makes more jet engines - there are simpler approaches for that.
Making houses more expensive by raising demand via financial schemes or immigration isn't productive economic activity, nor is much of the financial services industry (high speed trading for instance). There is obviously a role for banking and capital allocation, futures and derivatives yet it should be weighted lower compared to production of goods like iron, food, energy and aircraft engines.
Used house sales are not part of GDP. Realtor fees are, but those don't seem to be a significant part of this growth (we'll need to wait for final numbers to be sure). HST, futures, and derivatives do not (directly) contribute to GDP. For that matter, neither does iron, and usually neither do energy or aircraft engines, at least when the purchasers are domestic.
Guys, GDP is the value of final goods and services produced in an area. In other words, it's (consumer spending) + (investment) + (government spending) + exports - imports.
Boeing buys a GE engine? Does not count towards GDP.
Lockheed Martin buys steel? Does not count towards GDP.
I buy onion futures? Does not count towards GDP, except any transaction fees, which, even when they are high, are a small part of the transaction.
Delta buys an airplane? That's investment, it counts.
The government buys a missile? Government spending, it counts.
Simple as.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
3d ago
HGW00 is up 57% over 5 years and the S&P is up 87% in the same timeframe - but at least your money is where your mouth is.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
3d ago
But are you long on copper futures?
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
5d ago
You can definitely find pallets near dumpsters, but I don't know that there's much evolutionary headroom for them.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
6d ago
The broader point here is that if your opportunities are coming from discord you're in trouble.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
6d ago
You'll never get anywhere asking girls out on discord.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
6d ago
Do zoomers really ask girls out on discord?
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
7d ago
You're missing the point. The watermelon we have today is the special cultivar. Presumably at some point you'd say that people who only like this cultivar don't like watermelon, and now you wouldn't.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
7d ago
60 minutes with a jade-like beauty: 160 dollars (240 Australian dollars)
Gotta love the brothel opening at 10 AM, in case any Aussies want to get a quick COOM in before lunch.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
7d ago
Humans have been developing food technology for about ten thousand years, from domestication and selective breeding to improved processing techniques. Would I find you in Middle Kingdom Egypt saying that if you don't like the bitter and poisonous watermelons of our forefathers then you don't like watermelons at all? Would you deride the sweet watermelon as "a Menhtuhotep II era invention only possible thanks to a selective breeding program"?
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
8d ago
The reason for their high beneficiary status is that the men insist on studying for an exceedingly long time.
Typically, more education doesn't correlate with being more likely to be on the dole.
In Israel you have the conservative / modern orthodox who have a high TFR while living a very productive technology-forward life.
Until very recently even secular Jews in Israel had above-replacement fertility so this proves little.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
10d ago
It was a scythe actually, but directionally correct.
Doing the work yourself does not logically exclude the possibility of mechanization though.
I don't even have a "problem" with their system in the context of this conversation, and it seems a bit facile to resort to accusations like that when we're discussing a narrow empirical question about Chinese consumption as a fraction of GDP which you were the one to dispute.
@aquota said it's 40%, you said that's bullshit propaganda and provided a paywalled source to support that which, it turns out, suggests the true number is 46%.
Now you're saying that 40%-50% is perfectly normal, actually. Well, maybe, but then why call the original claim imperial propaganda when it's pretty close to correct?
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