sarker
ketman hetman
No bio...
User ID: 636
sarker
ketman hetman
1hr ago
I'm going all in on nothing. The market overall continues posting at worst anemic returns as it has for the past few months, but no crash. And yes, I am long the market.
sarker
ketman hetman
8hr ago
What is an example of a negative thing you might have responded with?
sarker
ketman hetman
8hr ago
50+ hours a week of housework was needed to achieve a respectable working class standard of housekeeping,
Work done in the home and consumed in the home is explicitly excluded from this accounting.
sarker
ketman hetman
8hr ago
Can you give an example of a situation where this led to a downgrade?
sarker
ketman hetman
8hr ago
Is this an Irish thing? I think @JTarrou is right about the US. Let's do a back of the envelope calculation for ireland.
- Median income: ~40k euro. I think the after tax take home would be 38k.
- Groceries for 4: hard to say. The US government makes a sample thrifty budget, but the Irish one does not. Let's say 125 euro per week.
- marriage: basically free.
- house: I tried to find a 25th percentile house price but couldn't easily do so. The median house outside Dublin is something like 300k euro. I don't know how Irish mortgages are structured, but Claude says you can put down 10% and mortgage 90% at around 3.5% (side note: apparently you get better interest rates for better insulated houses? Lmao) which works out to 1212 euros a month for a 30 year loan.
- property tax: apparently about 400 euro a year
- home insurance: 650 euro a year
- call it 1300 euro a month all in
So after those expenses you've got about 1400 euro a month to spend on everything else. Doesn't seem so bad?
sarker
ketman hetman
8hr ago
Can you give an example of when answering this question honestly led to negative consequences?
sarker
ketman hetman
8hr ago
The region with the highest female employment rate is...Subsaharan Africa,
Genuinely shocking result, thanks for that.
sarker
ketman hetman
2d ago
He also made it clear that you aren't going to even be able to take those risks unless you're a multi millionaire first.
I wonder how true this is. Looking at the richest men in America:
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Musk: Started his first company in 1995 with about $60k of capital in 2026 dollars and seemed to just bootstrap his success from that. His dad famously owned an emerald mine, but there's conflicting reports about how much money that actually brought in and he was estranged from his dad.
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Larry Ellison: mildly shitty childhood, raised by aunt and uncle, started his business with $11k starting capital in 2025 dollars, of which he personally invested about $6k. Not a multimillionaire and didn't come from money as far as I can tell.
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Zucc: professional parents, high status schools, probably UMC or LUC. It's not clear how much starting capital Facebook requires from a cursory skim, but I can't imagine it was a lot considering its humble beginnings. He had a parental safety net, but certainly wasn't a multi millionaire.
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Jeff Bezos: born to a teenage mother (high school student) and father (an alcoholic "Danish unicyclist"). Later adopted by a Cuban stepfather (petroleum engineer). I guess his mom's dad was a regional director of the atomic energy commission? Bezos had a successful professional career after college and started Amazon with $600k of capital in 2025 dollars from his parents.
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Larry Page: college professor parents. High status summer schools. Got some seed funding for basic equipment and then managed to attract bigger investors with demos of the technology.
I don't really think that any of these people were only in a position to take risks from having millions already. Bezos is probably the closest thing to this given the size of the investment his parents put in (although it's a mystery to me where they got that money from in the first place). The most you can say for the rest of these is that their lives wouldn't have been over had their businesses not succeeded and they could have moved in with their parents or something - but that goes for a lot of people, not just multi millionaires.
sarker
ketman hetman
2d ago
The risk isn't from a nuclear explosion, it's from an explosion that scatters nuclear material which is way more likely in a rocket than a bomb.
sarker
ketman hetman
4d ago
Is there any way for Iran to credibly promise not to get a nuclear weapon in the foreseeable future?
Lots of countries make their facilities open to IAEA inspectors. South Africa was declared to have fully dismantled its nuclear stockpile upon inspections. The USSR and USA inspected each others' facilities as part of arms reductions treaties. Etc.
sarker
ketman hetman
5d ago
Feminism has nothing to do with the fact that low status men are an object of derision everywhere and there are more men than women in Iran in every age bracket up to about age 55.
sarker
ketman hetman
5d ago
Yeah, thats Anthropics side of the story
None of this is contradicted by the DoD.
Also, someone needs to tell Anthropic they are roughly 40 years too late on the autonomous systems thing.
Aegis is irrelevant here. As they said:
today, frontier AI systems are simply not reliable enough to power fully autonomous weapons.
Their objection is not to "software being capable of killing on its own" and I'm a little surprised that you apparently haven't even read the two page press release before formulating an opinion.
sarker
ketman hetman
5d ago
Anthropic does not operate those data centers, so it remains unclear how they could suddenly pull the plug.
sarker
ketman hetman
6d ago
Their only real lever is to cut off access, and that could happen without warning in a way that gets people killed.
They are not serving Claude from AWS for use in highly privileged environments, so it's not clear how this could be done. The question is one of model alignment.
sarker
ketman hetman
6d ago
Contracts are not public. However -
However, in a narrow set of cases, we believe AI can undermine, rather than defend, democratic values. Some uses are also simply outside the bounds of what today’s technology can safely and reliably do. Two such use cases have never been included in our contracts with the Department of War, and we believe they should not be included now.
To our knowledge, these two exceptions have not been a barrier to accelerating the adoption and use of our models within our armed forces to date.
The Department of War has stated they will only contract with AI companies who accede to “any lawful use” and remove safeguards in the cases mentioned above. They have threatened to remove us from their systems if we maintain these safeguards; they have also threatened to designate us a “supply chain risk”—a label reserved for US adversaries, never before applied to an American company—and to invoke the Defense Production Act to force the safeguards’ removal.
https://www.anthropic.com/news/statement-department-of-war
They've already got contracts, the DoD isn't happy and is trying to strongarm them into a broader contract.
sarker
ketman hetman
6d ago
If they're unenforceable, why did the contract get terminated? Presumably, the mechanism of enforcement is the alignment of the model itself. It's more like, Glock made a gun that only fires in certain circumstances and you claim that this is void. Okay, if it's void, go ahead and do it. Oh, you can't?
sarker
ketman hetman
6d ago
I admire your commitment to "nothing ever happens" even in the face of overwhelming odds.
he's then going to come to Amodei and say "give it to me or I'll take it", and Amodei's going to give it to him.
He already had it. Now he's saying he doesn't want it after all. I don't think he's gonna get it.
Edit: he didn't get it.
sarker
ketman hetman
11d ago
I mean, maybe you can say it's not specific targeting, but if the admiral is on deck and you're shooting muskets and cannonballs at the guys on the deck it's a far cry from the examples where the army specifically avoided killing enemy generals.
sarker
ketman hetman
11d ago
This must be an army thing because admirals get killed all the time. Nelson and Maarten Tromp were shot by sharpshooters. De Ruyter was hit by a cannonball. Lütjens went down with the ship (many such cases). Etc.
sarker
ketman hetman
11d ago
I started picking it up when I was 5, or something. Then, when I was 7, Cartoon Network made a sudden appearance on the TV, and the people who were rebroadcasting it didn't have the resources to translate it, so my English really picked up at the time.
Watching TV isn't sufficient to learn a language to native proficiency. It's about immersion in the language from a young age.
Sometimes, it's harmless enough. Sometimes it's even adaptive, and you get evolution, but the descriptivist approach is akin to saying "cancer is, like, just another way of being, man".
You haven't actually made an argument, you just threw up your hands and said "this is, like, just like cancer bro". Try again?
Nobody studied hateful geriatrics back when things were more based?
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