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I think you're wrong because of one very specific and personal reason. Charlie Kirk was a personal friend with most or all of the conservative and right wing pundits. The video of Megyn Kelly and Glenn Beck both getting emotional when they're live streaming and learn that Kirk died is all over the place. A ton of others - Ben Shapiro and the DailyWire gang, Benny Johnson, etc. also had really personal stories to share about Kirk.
So, a year from now, right before midterms, these people aren't going to make the cold journalistic calculation of what the remaining salience of Kirk is for their viewers. They're going to remember their friend and talk about him.
Gabby Giffords was, you know, in Congress. And presumably knew many fellow congressmen personally, who had no interest in letting the issue drop. She also had the advantage of being a woman, and of being horrifically crippled rather than killed, which is I think worse. The results in 2012 were, I suppose, a Democratic bump but moderate in impact: they added two seats to their Senate majority and bit eight seats out of the Republican House majority. The equivalent impact towards R next year would add up to the R's holding 227 seats in the House, and 56 in the Senate. Which would improve the Republican position quite a bit when trying to corral the loony bin for budget bills, but it's not the death of the Democrats.
And four years later the Republicans would return with much extremer rhetoric and win the Presidency, House, and Senate in a huge upset.
Charlie Kirk's death is unfortunate, but it's not some kind of win-now button. If it were, we would have actually seen a false flag before.
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