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Culture War Roundup for the week of January 16, 2023

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The Big Serge has a good overview of the RU-UA war. The TL;DR is that Ukraine has burned through multiple iterations of armaments and is now reduced to begging for active NATO matériel, hence Germany's reticence to send Leopards. One should understand that Europe's and even America's production capacities have atrophied badly over the decades. Losing hundreds of tanks - the number that Ukraine is asking for - isn't something you replenish within a year.

Serge's prediction that Ukraine will lose the war "gradually, then suddenly" seems plausible given Russia's attrition strategy. If we assume that Russia will win this war, then the question needs to be asked.. how much will actually change? Ukraine as a country isn't particularly important and the population is likely to be hostile to Russia, meaning that to integrate it into Russia proper will be difficult if not impossible.

I keep hearing hysterical rhetoric that the West must win this war or... something something bad. It reminds me of the flawed 'domino theory' that was used to justify the Vietnam intervention. While I don't think NATO will ever proceed towards direct intervention á la Vietnam, I can't help but think that too many of the West's elites have trapped themselves rhetorically where Ukraine's importance is overblown for political reasons (so as to overcome domestic opposition towards sending arms) and it has now become established canon in a way that is difficult to dislodge.

Serge's prediction that Ukraine will lose the war "gradually, then suddenly" seems plausible given Russia's attrition strategy. If we assume that Russia will win this war, then the question needs to be asked.. how much will actually change? Ukraine as a country isn't particularly important and the population is likely to be hostile to Russia, meaning that to integrate it into Russia proper will be difficult if not impossible.

It's unlikely that Russia is in a position, economically or militarily, to occupy all of Ukraine. Russia is also in steep demographic decline and the population seems to have little stomach for sacrifice, which is presumably why Putin is only spending about 5% of Russian GDP on this war. Russia needs a guerilla war in Ukraine like it needs a Third, Fourth, and Fifth Chechen War.

Their best-case scenario (which I suspect is their current strategic aim) is to occupy the areas that they have claimed so far, ethnically cleanse most of the Ukrainian population in these areas as they have begun to do (taking children to Russia and giving them to Russian families) and to hope for a gradual rapproachment with the West, just as happened over the annexation of the Baltic States. For example, that could happen if Russia implicitly or explicitly sided with the US in a conflict with China, just as Western mollification over the annexation of the Baltic States was eased by the USSR inadvertently ending up in the war against the Nazis.

The annexation would never be recognised in the West, but it would eventually cease to be an issue that inhibits Russian trade, finance, diplomacy etc.

However, it's worth noting that that analyst is adopting a "broken clock" strategy towards predicting a Russian victory. I see no reason to take them particularly seriously.

The failure of the Kherson counteroffensive will accelerate progress towards the two tipping points, both by degrading the Ukrainian army further, and souring westerners on continuing to support Ukraine. Winter and the ensuing economic chaos will do the rest...

Ukraine cannot achieve strategic objectives - all they can do is trade the lives of their men for temporary tactical successes that can be spun into wins by their propaganda arm.

https://bigserge.substack.com/p/the-russo-ukrainian-war

Their best-case scenario (which I suspect is their current strategic aim) is to occupy the areas that they have claimed so far, ethnically cleanse most of the Ukrainian population in these areas as they have begun to do (taking children to Russia and giving them to Russian families) and to hope for a gradual rapproachment with the West, just as happened over the annexation of the Baltic States. For example, that could happen if Russia implicitly or explicitly sided with the US in a conflict with China, just as Western mollification over the annexation of the Baltic States was eased by the USSR inadvertently ending up in the war against the Nazis.

The annexation would never be recognised in the West, but it would eventually cease to be an issue that inhibits Russian trade, finance, diplomacy etc.

Yes, I agree with you. As noted in my OP, however, my intention was not primarily to handicap the war so much as to question the importance of this conflict and of Ukraine more generally. There's a whiff of existential crisis in the coverage of the war, which is frankly absurd if you take a step back and look at the stakes rationally. A potential loss in Ukraine for NATO isn't going to end the West just as defeats in Vietnam or Afghanistan didn't.