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Culture War Roundup for the week of September 15, 2025

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Polling people immediately after just reveals signaling, it doesn't reveal beliefs. And as always, wording matters.

For example if you say

“true American patriots may have to resort to violence to save the country”,

It's 30% of Republicans and only about 12% of Democrats. https://prri.org/research/threats-to-american-democracy-ahead-of-an-unprecedented-presidential-election/

This also changes over time

In our latest survey, Republicans (18%) are more likely to agree that political violence may be necessary to save our country than independents (13%) and Democrats (11%). Independents’ views on this measure have been consistent since March 2021. Support for political violence among Republicans peaked at a high of 35% in August 2021, though most recently, since Trump’s election, their support has been at its lowest (18%). Democrats’ support for political violence has remained consistently lower during this period, ranging from a low of 7% to a high of 13%.

Now of course as always, beware the man of one study, beware the man of the polls (especially online polls) too.

Timing, wording, polling sample biases, all of these can lead to drastic differences. Polling is signaling, it's obvious that 35% of Republicans didn't actually support political violence during 2021 (given not even a fraction of a fraction did any violence), they just said it to signal "I'm really upset right now!".

“true American patriots may have to resort to violence to save the country”,

This is a truly terrible survey question.

(The entire statement, which is a little better with the context, is "because things have gotten so far off track, true American patriots may have to resort to violence in order to save our country")

This plainly includes e.g. fighting off a Chinese invasion. There might not be a Chinese invasion -- there almost certainly won't, at least of the mainland US -- but the question says 'may.' And if there were, it would likely be 'because things have gotten so far off track' in terms of foreign policy, military readiness, etc. It also includes joining the FBI to fight domestic terrorists, or the secret service to protect leaders from assassination, and a dozen other anodyne activities. I'd go so far to say that answering 'no' implies only a profoundly lacking imagination. (Or perhaps the belief that individuals resorting to violence to save our country aren't necessarily true American patriots?)

But, as you say, the actual answers are probably all signaling. Still, I'm forced to question the motives of whoever wrote that question -- did they really not think at all about what they were asking?

@remzem's YouGov poll is... slightly better?

"Do you think it is ever justified for citizens to resort to violence in order to achieve political goals?"

I'd still say war counts -- it is, after all, the continuation of politics with other means -- but I'd feel like a pedant doing it. It's obvious what this one means where on the other I think I would just go down that line of thought and click 'yes.'

Still, the answer to this one is also obviously 'yes.' '[E]ver justified' is doing a lot of work. Do 83% of conservative believe the American Revolution wasn't justified? Do 55% of the very liberal think the July 20 plot to kill Hitler wasn't justified?

A far, far more useful question would be whether political violence is currently justified in America. Certainly, the numbers would be smaller, but how much smaller? Certainly not zero. Actually, it might be decent measure of how much of this is just signaling, given how much more extreme a position it is.

Wording matters, but "true American patriots" is putting such a heavy thumb on the scale that I'm somewhere between disappointed and impressed by PRRI, and that's knowing some of their other hijinks.

Sure, so let's just look at your own Yougov link (which presumably you trust as a fair source since you used it) which says

But YouGov has asked this question multiple times since 2022, and found some noticeable changes in opinion. For one thing, while Republicans are more likely than Democrats to say political violence is a very big problem in September 2025, in the wake of Kirk's shooting, the reverse has been true when YouGov has asked this question after attacks on Democratic political figures. How concerned Americans are about political violence is related to some degree to whether someone from their side or from the other side is the most recent to be attacked

Yeah this seems to support that it's mostly signaling "I support my side!" or "I'm upset!" rather than consistent views.

(which presumably you trust as a fair source since you used it)

remzem

gattsuru

?

I've got an icon on my posts for a reason! And on that specific matter, I specifically and try to caveat YouGov almost anytime I do reference them.

EDIT: I'm also extremely skeptical of YouGov's specific poll question here given the combined use of the Likert scale and literally never showing its breakdown.

Woops sorry I didn't notice the usernames but same logic applies anyway.

If we trust Yougov for Poll 1, we should trust it for Poll 2. If we don't trust Poll 2, we shouldn't trust it for Poll 1.