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AI platforms as they currently exist are also incredibly fungible. To the average end user there is minimal difference between chatgpt, claude, grok etc. To an enthusiast, the main difference is how much they censor, evade, or try to avoid controversial prompts (of which grok is by far the least annoying here). Burning billions on the cutting edge doesn't give you any lasting advantage against 11th hour entries who spend 1/10th the amount to produce something 90% as good at half the price to their customers. And the amount getting invested already implies capturing a substantial amount of consumer spending at some point in the future just to break even. (Already you want $30 per person on Earth per year).
Nvidia itself will probably be fine, though it depends on if the crash just hits the cutting edge or if its so severe it becomes hard to even cover the cost of serving prompts.
This factor has surprised me completely. The assumption was that any company that got an edge in AI would probably be able to use that edge to speed up its own improvements, and competitors would have to burn a TON of money to try to catch up. So the first mover advantage would be potentially insurmountable.
And its worked about that way in a lot of other industries. With Uber itself, sure there's Lyft and Waymo and a few other small competitors, but the network effects it achieved have kept it out in front, handily.
In the AI space, I guess the fact that its working entirely with bits rather than atoms means the cost of 'catching up' is much lower, especially once a particular trail has been blazed.
What this does seem to reveal is that the player placing bets are REALLY assuming that whomever wins is going to win REALLY BIG, big enough to justify all the previous burn across all the losing companies.
It is hard to imagine (for me) a world where more than, say, 3 AI companies are standing once all is said and done.
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