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PaperclipPerfector  7d ago (text post)   23982 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of October 20, 2025

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On the surface level, there's an immediate problem where this case's question is just astonishingly bad for that purpose. Its holding can only be whether "Hawaii may presumptively prohibit the carry of handguns by licensed concealed carry permit holders on private property open to the public unless the property owner affirmatively gives express permission to the handgun carrier?" Anything more specific will be dicta, and the Ninth Circuit will ignore dicta they don't like, and this case only exists because they already ignored SCOTUS saying specifically you can't just declare a whole island a sensitive space.

At the deeper level, there's so much else going on in this case, both in the other question the plaintiffs brought up, and in the other questions relevant in the appeal. If SCOTUS just wanted to a case to nail down a test for sensitive places, it's nonsensical to exclude the Ninth Circuit's bizarre. And the law in question here separately blocked "all parks and beaches, playgrounds and youth centers, bars and restaurants that serve liquor, and places of amusement and libraries", questions squarely presented in the petition. There's so many better and wider questions if they wanted to apply a rule to solve the sensitive places flat.

I'm... a lot more pessimistic on worst-case scenarios. I don't think it's likely that SCOTUS gives a full thumbs-up to the vampire rule, but it's painfully plausible that they'll end up with an explicit test that's either so vague or so broad that any remotely specific ban can pass it, and then punts for eternity as lower courts take that to permit more expansive bans than the 'overturned' one SCOTUS ruled on. Wouldn't be the first time.

Its holding can only be whether ... Anything more specific will be dicta

That's not true. The court will answer that question as part of the case, but whatever test and reasoning they use to answer that question will be precedent. Whether or not lower courts ignore it is a different story.

And the law in question here separately blocked "all parks and beaches, playgrounds and youth centers, bars and restaurants that serve liquor, and places of amusement and libraries", questions squarely presented in the petition.

Not quite, in the link you provided yourself, the only two questions formally presented in the petition are about the vampire rule and the question about historical analysis.

That's not true. The court will answer that question as part of the case, but whatever test and reasoning they use to answer that question will be precedent. Whether or not lower courts ignore it is a different story.

... not really? In normal courts, that's the rule, but the Ninth Circuit specifically has a unique relationship with stare decisis: simultaneously, even pure dicta from within the court may be binding, but to overrule a past case:

We hold that the issues decided by the higher court need not be identical in order to be controlling. Rather, the relevant court of last resort must have undercut the theory or reasoning underlying the prior circuit precedent in such a way that the cases are clearly irreconcilable.

Yes, there's also the problem of lower courts ignoring SCOTUS as a matter of practice, but specifically the Ninth Circuit as a matter of open policy does not merely require the holding be part of the question raised for the case, or even that the holding be essential to the determination in the case, but that its logic be clearly irreconcilable. Otherwise, only an en banc Ninth Circuit court may overrule one of the many copious Ninth Circuit en banc opinions holding the Second Amendment to mean nothing.

Not quite, in the link you provided yourself, the only two questions formally presented in the petition are about the vampire rule and the question about historical analysis.

Fair. They were not Questions Asked in the sense of showing up in that section of the pdf, just questions brought up with a full exploration of their factual and legal background.

It seems to me the only reason to take the case in this particular way is to affirm the vampire rule.

I doubt it. If the court wanted to allow the vampire rule to stand, they would either just do nothing or take a case where a lower court overturned the vampire rule.

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