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Transnational Thursday for October 30, 2025

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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Big Serge has a pretty sober analysis out recently on his substack -- short version as I recall is that the Russians are doing bite & hold, and this is basically just another bite -- not particularly exciting in and of itself, but shaping the lines for whatever they plan to bite next. Plus of course keeping Ukrainian forces pinned down and inflicting losses which one presumes will eventually become significant.