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Notes -
My impression of the last 10 months is this:
Trump wins, most radical conservatives and even many centrists and liberals expect a continuation of Trump I, ideologically and politically. Sure, that means a move moderately rightward on immigration and maybe a reduction in support for Ukraine, but broadly not much is going to change, since most presidents don’t change radically in a second term and even though Trump’s is non-continuous, that is the general assumption. The dissident right already has Trump at arms length, not just the groyper factions but also the BAPists and even Heritage AmCon types, in part because of Trump’s disavowal of the hardcore pro-life crowd and his seeming ambivalence toward Project 2025.
Come late Jan and early Feb, the new administration seems to embark on things with a zeal that was completely absent in the first Trump administration. Not only are many cabinet picks radical or unusual, but DOGE starts shutting down things that he never touched previously, and doing so very publicly. The ideological tests come out for some federal employees, people get fired visibly, the press is outside federal buildings as employees wait outside locked doors.
Most importantly of all, as the press tries previous Trump tactics like trying to cancel DOGE staffers for previous racist or sexist tweets or posts, nothing happens. The Vice President even defends the staffers. The Jan 6 protesters get the widest possible pardon, more than many even on the right expected. Rhetoric against mass immigration heats up with the Homan appointment and some high profile raids. Non-groyper dissident rightists start celebrating, even many Trump-ambivalent people come onside, hope accelerates rapidly.
The tariff situation happens, which again is vastly more radical than anything in the first administration. The market crash is reversed when Trump rolls some things back, but that only cements the impression of this administration as fundamentally unstoppable. Democrat protests fade away or are smaller in size than in the first administration.
Trump passes a budget that gives him almost everything he wants, which feels like the high point for him and his support (so far). The liberal and progressive press is full “it’s over” in a way they never were from 2016-2020. The administration openly cancels media figures, and the leaders of major corporations and tech companies who were full prog #dei in term 1 are now scrapping diversity programs and swearing fealty to the president and even saying in interviews, self-servingly of course, that the left went way too far. This includes industries that are notoriously progressive like Hollywood and Big Tech. White shoe law firms are pressured to abandon legal assistance to the left under threat of sanction and no government contracts, which finally feels like the right is playing hardball in a way they haven’t at any time in modern American history.
The exuberance results in some infighting on the right, especially in the wake of the Kirk assassination. Miller and other senior figures are hyperborea-posting on Twitter, DHS is posting 80s synthwave and Halo remixes on top of videos of illegal immigrants being led onto planes in handcuffs, the shitposters are in charge. All the while the economy is deteriorating, graduates (including young white and Hispanic men who did vote for Trump in large numbers) find it much harder to be employed. I agree with a lot of the policies (and am in full alignment with Miller) but there does seem to have been a certain ignorance from the admin about how this is perceived. Many people don’t like illegal immigrants, but there are a surprising number who are too squeamish for certain kinds of imagery the admin was pushing out.
Now, some defeats happen. It’s not disastrous at all. The GOP still polls ahead on many issues, including immigration and crime. I don’t think the groyper war on X over Israel is particularly important for these national results. But the economy is concerning, and its effect is larger. A downturn will make it impossible to hold congress in 2026 even with favorable maps. Big tech that is being AI automating jobs now being ‘on the side of’ the right will make a populist economic message much harder.
One hidden aspect of this is that BigLaw provided a large amount of pro bono legal work to NGOs, so now many NGOs bringing leftist litigation are finding themselves without hours and hours of high-quality free legal work.
Apparently, the chill has gone so far that the ABA itself had trouble finding help to sue the Trump admin. Some lulz to be had there. Also:
I wonder how some of those clients paying $1000/hour for legal services feel about the money going to subsidize "activist nonprofits." I have to suspect that's finally playing a role, too.
Is it just me, or has the vibe of "nonprofit" shifted in the last couple years? A decade back, "I work with a nonprofit" was generally seen as a positive contribution, but it seems today there is a lot more cynicism about how those nonprofits compensate their management (sometimes heavily), and whether their mission is even good (no, the world doesn't need even more puppies).
Recently I had a friend lament that there was no counterbalance to corporate lobbyists and I had to remind him that nonprofits existed, that their goals are not axiomatically good and uncontroversial.
My gut feeling is that there is still likely a majority of people immediately translating in their head "nonprofit" as "charity", and who generally think of them as non-partisan, non-political, altruistic, net-positive.
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It has definitely shifted among some people, but I can't tell how widespread the attitude shift is. I work in criminal defense, and I find it impossible to take most non-profits seriously, which puts my poker face to the test at times. If someone like me has decided that a solid 95% of NGOs are useless makework facilities at best and seriously detrimental to society at worst, then I suspect many normies are not fans either.
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