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Notes -
Are there many near-financially-failing public (state/city) schools? I would expect the upper half of the university system to do okay regardless of student applications dropping. The failing schools will be the ones already struggling to put butts in seats, and I'm not sure exactly which those are. A number of small liberal arts schools have already folded. Are there borderline state schools unable to fill classes?
The most high profile example of this that I'm aware of is up in Pennsylvania. The Pennsylvania State University is not exactly a state school, but it is one of the "big three" schools that are affiliated.
Three years ago they announced a hiring freeze. It's nominally still active at the end of 2025. I know some people who work there who say that their teams have been reduced by more than half simply through attrition.
Earlier this year, they announced that they will be closing seven of their branch campuses. Students who are still attending them will be given financial assistance and priority admission to attend other schools.
The enrollment cliff is real, and it scares the hell out of higher ed administrators.
Sources: Hiring freeze, campus closure
However: This document indicates that each of the seven satellite campuses being closed had fewer than 800 students. The dire situation at those satellite campuses doesn't really reflect the university as a whole, whose main campus enrolls 49,000 students and has not seen its enrollment fall over the past ten years.
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