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Notes -
First - no ceasefire ever. Just work on the treaty. Hammer Ukraine until they relent on this point. Second - take only majority Russian territories. Third - Ukraine is forbidden to be in military alliances, but allowed to have whatever and how much they want of conventional forces. No foreign peacekeeping force, but are allowed generous amount of observers/trainers as long as they are not affiliated with NATO. Also allow security guarantees. Fourth - give USA and EU the frozen assets to reconstruct Ukraine in trade for sanctions lift. Not Ukraine. They are allowed to draw for them for paying EU and US companies that do work there. Fifth - Create international company that gets ownership of the gas transit infrastructure of Ukraine with ownership split between Germany Italy and couple of other countries. Ukrainians will squeal like pigs, but bribing parts of EU is always a good idea. Sixth - offer Ukraine discounted hydrocarbons for couple of years. Seventh - make Ukraine take blame for Nordstream and make them pay reparations to Germany that will be used for rebuilding it. There is not a chance in hell of Ukraine having the money to pay, but a nice pressure point.
For casualties - I would say probably parity. Ukrainians having favorable ratio before 2025 and giving more from Kursk onwards.
Russia is hurting now so it actually needs peace.
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