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This is a funny callout given the fact the PLAN is quite literally doing the part of the movie where the protagonist does a training montage to "the eye of the tiger"
What do you think about the Type 003 EMALs, the pending type 004, and the fact they're launching type 054x and type 055s at a pretty hefty clip?
Put another way, why do you think basically every INDOPACOM leader sounds like they're shitting their pants in interviews and press releases?
There's a pretty large difference between production of new combat systems and experiencing in highly complex naval operations in combat.
China hasn't done the latter since 1979. Even basic seamanship atrophies quickly without constant training and re-training. Ask the U.S. Navy's 7th fleet.
Aquilino and Paparo - both aviators, by the way - mostly make noise about the issues of sustainment in the event of a crisis with taiwan. Amateurs talk about strategy, professional talk about logistics. The biggest issue is that China is like, really far away and shit. Our sealift capabilities plus ammunition, refit, maintenance, repair in theatre isn't enough to keep pace when PLAN has all of their naval industry right there. In strict force-on-force, the US is still winning, hands down. The problem, again, is when timetables stretch.
But that's just talking about a hypothetical right off the coast of mainland China. In terms of true ocean going naval fore projection, what has China done more than park a flotilla in the Gulf of Aden (after getting lost one time, lol) and then doing weird joint floats with the Russians sorta-kinda near Japan?
Running a truly global Naval force is shit crazy expensive, hyper complex, and requires a training pipeline and practice that you have to develop through decades of trial and error. Human capital, culture, and experience still matter far more than sleek new hulls and neato weapons.
Why do you think US would win when a carrier group doesn't have enough interceptors to even get close to China?
Getting into a shootout with a small continent sized landmass isn't what a admiral is looking to do.
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Nice to talk to someone who knows their shit!
While I agree, "X country hasn't done real combat since Y" is kind of a tired trope. The US Navy hasn't fought a peer opponent since 1945 but we all agree they could wipe the floor with any other navy, and debatably could take on a large fraction of the world simultaneously.
Experience is great, but training is so close to as good it almost doesn't matter? And basically everything I see about China is they're getting in more and more training hours, and running bigger and bigger exercises.
Yes, that's why I said it's the "training montage" part. They're not there yet, but they're fucking grinding to get there. They have a CATOBAR carrier to git gud on, they'll soon have more. Eventually they'll have nuclear powered ones so they can learn that too. There in the middle of the "decades of trial and error" part, meanwhile the US Navy is now 3/3 on failing to acquire new major surface combatants, and even if they could procure worth a damn, they barely have the shipyard capacity to make them.
I'm Canadian, I love Pax Americana, I do not want a world in which China is strong. I am scared because it seems like my team is eating crayons, going to lobbyist dinners, and laughing at the Chinese for being "IP theft bugmen who can't innovate" while the Chinese are hitting new deadlift PRs every month (still smaller than us, but growing!) and drinking a river of creatine.
Yes. But their naval exercises keep getting bigger and better. They're slowly expanding their global base network. Their recent "totally not practicing to cut Taiwan off" drills continue to expand.
Also, the unfortunate reality is that the fight, if it happens, will be in the first island chain, and maybe tickling the second (I'd imagine that would be a round #2 some years later depending on round #1).
The PLAN won't be forcing the straits of Magellan, where both navies have to bring their shit with them. It'll be in China's backyard.
Will Chinese Type 055s ever sail off the coast of LA? Absolutely not.
Is the PLAN on a trajectory that results in the US being pushed back deeper into the Pacific? It's looking increasingly likely, and I don't like it.
Okay, so we actually agree on more than we disagree on. And we're probably 99.9999% aligned on the current state of affairs.
The difference is just in the prognosis of the outcome.
I'll combine these three things from your last post:
Time and timing are the big issues here. We've all heard the 2027 deadline / prediction for shit popping off. I don't really think it matters if that's actually 2026, 2028, 2030. But I think it's true that the CCP has a closing window of opportunity before (a) They experience something live COVID again (b) Power struggle at the top after Xi dies or (c) The demographic wave breaks and they actually HARD lose for another century. Truly, I think it's no later than 2035 (that's stretching it) before CCP has to shit or get off the planet.
Will their eye of the tiger training montage be complete in that amount of time? I'd argue no. Again, multiple decades of naval experience really are necessary. Maybe you can shave it down to 20 years starting from .... 2009? 2013? But I don't think you can just fuck around and find out how to do large scale amphibious work in 5 - 10 years.
Note to the Mods (@amadan, just tagging you off the top of my head) -- can we self-submit this as a "understanding actually developed out of some initial rounds of shouting" award?
yeah I'm with you
I give them longer than 2035 on the demographic piece, but yeah we could get another Deng who decides to chill tf out post Xi, who knows.
I generally have a pretty low opinion of the ability for the PLA(N) to pull off an amphibious invasion, although it's offset by:
the fact that Taiwanese procurement is so fucking stupid
the fact that Taiwanese people generally don't seem that committed to defense/dying for their country, although that's what everyone thought about Ukrainians pre-2022
the fact that China doesn't even need to invade immediately, everyone talks about "okay but the USA will just blockade China and they'll crumble" which I disagree with, but more importantly, if China is fucked by a blockade, Taiwan is mega fucked. A Chinese blockade is basically an immediate "lights out and also you're now starving" to the population of Taiwan.
I hope they don't pull it off, but I dislike all the trends.
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Americans counter that in case of Taiwan invasion they're just going to keep sinking and stealing Chinese cargo ships everywhere else and that PLAN is too small to stop them.
They're also talking about allowing privateering again.
Take a look at Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea's food and energy import dependence and then think about how that would go for the gang
What is more important - 50,000 old people dying from hunger and economic losses in allied nations, or US maintaining global primacy?
You tell me. I see Americans opine that it's better to burn the world than to lose top dog status. Not all of them, mind you. Maybe there's hope.
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