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Transnational Thursday for December 11, 2025

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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I would like to know what makes this different than piracy, if anything.

It's a state action. Piracy is not. In fact, the main differences between a privateer and a pirate is a state authorization. The state itself, obviously, has its own authorization, and thus can not be a pirate. If you are going to engage in the argument "this can looks like a thing that is described by a word that we think is bad", I recommend https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yCWPkLi8wJvewPbEp/the-noncentral-fallacy-the-worst-argument-in-the-world

Countries commit hostile acts against each other all the time. Sanctions, blockades, embargoes, seizures, tariffs, whatever. Of course, if state A attacks state B's ships, state B could also do something else to state A. Or ask another state C to help them. Unfortunately for Venezuela, Russia is not willing to defend them, and Guyana also not a huge factor, especially as the ship doesn't even belong to them.

Economic sanctions usually mean, "I won't do business with you," can a sanction mean, "I won't let you do business with someone else, and if you do I'll seize your vessel in your waters?"

Yes, of course. That's called an embargo, or a blockade.

At what point is a sanction a war with fancier language?

At the point the other side fights back.

Will the US have boots on the ground in Venezuela in a year?

Maybe some, but not likely many. Drug trade, unlike fundamentalist islam, is a business. Having war with a strongest army in the world, supported by the biggest economy in the world, is a bad business. So there's nobody in Venezuela that could do the same things that happened in Iraq. Venezuela as a country won't be able to resist US military - if the order is given - more than a couple of days, and it only will take this long because going fast would lead to casualties - not because of enemy action per se but because shit always happens, especially when boomy things are involved. More likely scenario is Maduro evacuates to Russia and then... who knows what happens. Certainly making it less of a shithole would be a titanic task, and I am not sure Trump is either capable or interested in that. Or maybe Maduro gets over himself, kowtows to Trump and Trump declares yet another Yuge Victory. What happens to the drug trade? They will adapt and find other ways to US market, as they always do.