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Culture War Roundup for the week of January 30, 2023

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All of this can be true, but with the conclusion reversed. Nearly every time a "scandal" came up during the Trump administration, I chuckled and said, "...so today is the day that people are going to learn how X works, eh?" And when my left-leaning buddies would get into why it was a scandal, we'd discuss how X actually works, with the clinching question being, "So, what are you willing to do about the problem of X? The only constraint on your answer is that you need to be willing to apply the same standard to politicians you like as you do for politicians that you don't like." That's when it became clear that they didn't have any "solution" to the "blind spot" that they could embrace. Their initial reaction was not, "Oh my, this is a blind spot that is a problem with the system in general, and it would be nice if we could fix the system." It was always, from the first moment, motivated by and embraced specifically for its ability to get Trump, because he's obviously crooked and only someone so crooked could do such a thing.

We can check this in hindsight, too. If and when this mostly blows over, because people realize they can't take Trump's scalp on it without taking too many other scalps, how much energy do you think there will be to 'fix the blind spot'? What's an example policy fix that you expect is likely to be adopted in order to bring about changes to the system and then applied evenly to politicians on both sides?

Are these people involved in what Jiro was calling the deep state?

I don't doubt that the media and the average Democrat are more interested in taking Trump to task than in high-minded procedural reform. The issue is boring/niche enough that only the most partisan framing will make it into headlines. And in this court of public opinion, it'll be reduced to extremes: do we Lock Him Up, or is it a Nothingburger?

This is a far cry from the bipartisan outrage at Nixon, so both public options are nonstarters. A solution, if any, will have to be internal. I would not be surprised to see the Executive branch issue some boring policy changes. But this is kind of a copout, as far as predictions go, since I don't really expect them to be public. My more legible predictions are negative.

  • The DoJ will not charge Trump with mishandling classified documents.

  • The DoJ probably won't bring obstruction-of-justice or similar charges (barring new situations).

  • Neither Biden nor Pence nor anyone in Congress will see an actual charge or penalty for their boring, procedural mishandling.

  • Mainstream media will keep reporting anything Trump related as a mortal sin anyway.

I could buy that, but then I think we're sort of contradicting the original premise:

What we're seeing with NARA is not the deep state continuing its politics by other means. It's the visceral panic of a bureaucracy realizing it has a blind spot.

The way you're describing the response now does not seem like "visceral panic". If there is an actual visceral panic upon discovering a blind spot, wouldn't that be oriented toward at least some real, meaningful policy changes? Why wasn't that visceral panic triggered back when it was discovered that there was a blind spot in, "My God, we just trusted people like the Secretary of State?" I've read the culmination of the bureaucracy's response upon learning about such a blind spot - it's the IG's report (IGs are basically always supposed to take scalps; they are the sine qua non of the bureacracy's "visceral panic"). It's incredibly difficult for me to characterize it as "visceral panic".