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naraburns  nihil supernum  1yr ago (text post)   34576 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of January 30, 2023

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I mean, personally, as a left-winger, I'm glad some of our bloated defense department budget is finally get put to use for a good reason for once. If we have to "spend" (ie. send basically our leftover equipment in the back of the garage to Ukraine) a stupidly small amount of GDP to turn Russia into a wreck, win-win.

I’m not sure turning Russia into a wreck is a win-win (do we really want a de stabilized nuclear power)?

I just wish we’d cut military spending (including Ukraine spending).

As other people have pointed out, a Russia engaged largely in their own internal political (and possibly actual) knifing each other in the back over the failures of the Ukraine invasion is a nation that's far less able to cause issues on the world stage, even if somebody to Putin's right comes to power. Because it may take a decade-plus for said new guy to centralize his power the way Putin did. After all, Putin wasn't Putin until the end of the 2000's, really.

Russia, despite it's myriad of issues, has basically zero chance of becoming a "failed state" the way say, you could argue Syria, some African countries, etc. are, because Russia is still, by global standards, fairly wealthy with a lot of resosurces. They're currently messing that up, but they can mess it up to a far larger degree and still be OK (of course, the US can mess up to about 1,000x more degrees and still be fine.)

Now, obviously, an actual civil war in Russia would be bad, but that's honestly, incredibly unlikely to happen.

The issue is more “nuclear weapon(s) fall(s) into the wrong hands in a chaotic situation.”

do we really want a de stabilized nuclear power

Russia has been least dangerous to its neighbours when least stable and powerful: 1921-1938, when it was still devastated from WWI and its elite was eating itself, then 1992 to 2007, when it was an economic and political mess. The long term strategy of successive generations of Russian leaders, going back far beyond living memory, has been to develop a frontier of buffer vassal or neutraliased states as far as possible, stopping only when encountering resistance. Thus, Russia is only not a danger to its neighbours when it is weak.

Selfishly, I am not a neighbor of Russia. But if Russia for example became a failed state with a large deposits of nuclear warheads, that seems like a problem that could affect me.

I’m not sure turning Russia into a wreck is a win-win

Depends on comparison

do we really want a de stabilized nuclear power

They already destabilized themself by invading Ukraine, preferably they would not be also victorious.

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