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Notes -
There's a pretty huge difference between a tape of someone running their mouth and a tape of someone raping a minor. Again, if your model of the world doesn't account for this sort of massive difference, then you might want to reconsider your model. Different models may have different predictions for a tape of someone running their mouth, and one might evaluate said models on what actually happened, but there is obviously no constraint on the set of models forcing them to produce the same output on such extremely different cases.
This is plausible today, which is why I mentioned it.
None of these are plausible for the example given of a tape of him "violently raping a 14-year-old girl".
Testing one's model as parameters go to infinity is, indeed, a good sanity check. I do this in my daily work. If your model has truly absurd results as the parameters go to infinity, it's more likely that there's a problem with your model than that the world will actually match the model outputs.
I am just saying I think people would crowd-source every way it mighty possibly be fake or not as bad as it looks, until a response emerges that works well enough for enough of his supporters.
I do acknowledge that if we take this example 'to infinity' and keep stipulating a bunch of extra facts such as:
-the girl is very obviously underage -she comes forward and testifies -other evidence comes out making it highly likely Trump is guilty -he cannot make a refutation stick
Then yeah, he would lose support, and this could snowball to the point where the original video qualifies as a 'kill shot'. I don't think he is literally bullet proof (any more than a bullet proof vest is, when tested to infinity).
Sure, some people will want to think that it's fake in some way. I mean, I guess something like that could be fake? If you asked me a prior probability for a video coming out of any prominent politician committing a violent rape of a 14-year-old, especially in the AI age, I'd have a pretty non-zero chance of it being fake. And these days, normies have had their probability estimates for foreign government disinformation along lines like these jacked up, too.
...but that's basically the only thing that could plausibly have any play for the example given. People might think it's fake, but if there is enough other evidence to support that it's not a total fabrication, nothing else would save him.
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