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The United States of America is now at war with the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela. Dozens of Venezuelan military targets have been bombed in the last few minutes, including a major army base just outside the capital. American Chinooks have been seen flying across the Caracas skyline.
This could be the most important geopolitical happening since the Ukraine War. We do it yet know if this will be a limited run of bombing like the Kosovo strikes, or a full on Iraq style invasion and regime change. If it is the latter, it will be an important test of America’s military might, and failure could very well be America’s Suez moment. I have speculated here several times that I thought the US would have difficulty conducting a thunder run of a non-peer or near-peer adversary in its current state, and it looks as though my theory may be put to the test. On a geopolitical and moral level though, I have little sympathy for Venezuela, for the same reason I have little sympathy for Ukraine. If you repeatedly antagonize your neighboring superpower, you get what you get.
This will also no doubt further fracture the Republican base in a major way, as interventionist neocons clash with America-First isolationists.
This is also adds to an intensifying pattern of conflict in multiple theaters that could lead to global war. It also increases the likelihood of a Chinese attack on Taiwan as American asserts are entangled in multiple theaters.
I will post more information as I hear it.
A true gentleman scholar post “inb4 source” and is vindicated in the light of history.
Edit:
There are now multiple airstrikes occurring within Caracas. The United States FAA has issued a NOTAM warning that civilian aircraft should avoid overflying the entire territory of Venezuela.
Reuters is now reporting that there are US ground troops active within the capital of Venezuela.
If this does actually end up being a ground war then how long it takes us to capture Caracas will be a strong indicator of how much pur military has (or hasn't) been weakened over the last few decades. Took us 3 weeks to capture Baghdad and month to take Kabul, if we don't see a comparable timetable here then it means our military competence really has declined. I do consider South American militaries to be slightly more competent than Middle Eastern/South Asian ones, so if it takes more than 2 months I'll consider that our military competence probably really has declined. If we do it in 2 months or less I'll need to readjust my priors and mot think so poorly of our military's competence (the opposite of how I adjusted my priors about Russia after their failed push on Kiev).
Why would you think of Venezuela as tougher for the US military than Iraq? It seems to me that there are a lot of factors that make it easier - it's right in America's backyard, its capital city and basically everything major are on the shore (and so there is nothing resembling strategic depth at all), it's less consolidated than Iraq (current government hasn't been in power for that long, and there is a sprawling opposition apparatus the US has long nurtured), and the lower cultural distance means that US soft power is much more effective to encourage defection (for starters, no Venezuelan army member has to fear, rationally or not, that surrendering to the US means that his wife will get defiled in some unspeakable haram ways).
There are a few big differences. Venezuela's geography is much denser than the open deserts of Iraq.
Yemen showed that a few desert tribes with some drones from Iran can tie down a third of the US Navy for over a year and win. The Gulf of Mexico is within striking range of weapons that can be built with parts ordered of wish.
The US wasted two trillion trying to occupy Iraq and largely failed. The US military was larger in 2003 than today, the recruitment standards were higher and they weren't trying to compete with China over who can have the biggest navy off the coast of China.
Also drones are going to make occupying a country complete hell.
There's another big one: Our military speaks spanish and doesn't speak the six thousand dialects of the middle east. Having reliable communication with the locals is a pretty big deal.
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