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PaperclipPerfector  14hr ago (text post)   91 thread views

Transnational Thursday for January 1, 2026

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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There are some very large protests/rioting in Tehran. Potentially veering towards an attempted revolution. As I said in my post in the last TT thread, I’m pretty sure these are organized and coordinated by Burgerland/Israeli intelligence. Probably not much will come out of it, but something to keep an eye on.

An Iranian expat has told me recently (with regards to the Women's rights and other major protests), that suggesting these (albeit sometimes large) protests will lead to regime change is the same as if Chinese or Cuban state media portrayed the BLM or Occupy Wall Street protests as possibly toppling the US government. The state there is powerful and entrenched, aside he has no love for the regime and is an anti-Islamist.

Are they dying of thirst due to the draught or what's going on over there?

The water situation is difficult, their currency value is falling, the regime is losing support for not being able to ensure basic economic and infrastructural function. And the liberals in Tehran continue to not like their theocratic government. The question is whether the people out in the streets fall into group A or group B. If it’s just group B it’s probably a nothingburger. If it’s group A it could be a happening.

One article says:

Small-scale protests demanding that the Iranian government address the devaluation of the Iranian rial and high inflation rates have continued for the second consecutive day in Tehran and Hamadan City, western Iran, on December 29, amid a rapid collapse of the Iranian currency since November 2025. The value of the Iranian rial has deteriorated rapidly after November 2025, though its value has fallen for years due to sanctions and Iran’s general international isolation. Protests initially began in Tehran on December 28. Groups of less than roughly 100 civilians, who were reportedly Iranian ”businessmen”, marched from Lalezar Street toward the Imam Khomeini Square on December 29, demanding that the Iranian government intervene in the economy and address the high inflation rate and devaluation of the currency.

A hundred businessmen does not sound like much of a riot.

I assume it means multiple groups each comprising fewer than 100 people. The government response was quite large:

Iranian security forces halted and clashed with the protesters at the Istanbul intersection on December 29, according to Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)-affiliated media and geolocated footage. Iranian security forces also launched tear gas and clashed with protesters on Boali Street in southern Hamedan City on December 29. A BBC Persian journalist reported that economic protests also occurred in Malard City, Tehran Province, and on Gheshm Island in the Persian Gulf, but did not provide footage of the protests at the time of this writing. Tehran merchants announced that they will continue to protest on December 30.

Also, that article is from Sunday, and the protests have escalated since then.

Protests continued to expand geographically across Iran on December 31. Small protests broke out in Tehran on December 28 and have since spread to 17 out of Iran’s 31 provinces.

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