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What does the Alternate history look like if America stays entirely out of World War I? It's hard for me to imagine things working out worse than they did in our timeline. Is it enough change that WWII doesn't happen, or ends up as the West vs the Commies?
Again, I think there's a strong case to be made that our current position is pretty similar to 1910 or so, for a whole variety of reasons. I think we should try to lean hard into isolationism this time around, not least from observing how WWI and WWII went for the sclerotic, unwieldy empires that rolled into them. Modelling our current choices off WWII history is like a 55-year-old morbidly-obese former athlete with a bad back and a bum knee thinking he can throw down like he did when he was an 18-year-old in peak condition. We should be considering our future more from the perspective of Tsarist Russia or the Austro-Hungarian empire, not from that of a vital, highly cohesive, highly motivated state gifted with secure borders and unlimited, untapped natural resources.
I don't know enough about the particulars of how America's journey into the trenches really made a difference to how the war ended, vs. solely material support. Any change would probably make it so we don't get a Hitler and the particulars of the Nazis, but that's kind of unfair because he was such a strange duck out of nowhere. On the other hand, a militant Germany in general was still possible, just as a baseline. You can imagine some other type of fascism coming to power, but being more focused on the threat of communism than invading Western Europe. I mean just a slightly more sane and less ambitious Hitler could have done some of his opening moves that barely got push back, and then actually have defeated the commies if he so chose. Just leave Poland alone ffs.
The commies in contrast, seem like they were destined to control Russia regardless of any one figure and embark on global revolution.
But I'm not asking that we model off WWII history.
I'm asking that we model off the Cold War and post-Cold War, and that we use our hard and soft power wisely. Occupations and nation building are not wise without a suitable opportunity and a full commitment. Iraq and Afghanistan were not it. Vietnam was not it. Korea could have gone a lot better if we had been smarter about triggering Chinese intervention. Light footprint, use our air power. For instance, it was smart the way we kicked Saddam out of Kuwait; we played to our strengths. Reasonable people can disagree how smart it was then not to remove him from power, but it was--leaving aside entirely the failures of the occupation--not great geopolitics in 2003 to remove him at a point he was a minor threat to us and a major threat to Iran. Especially because we had already the Afghanistan shindig going.
Presently, for the second time in ~seven months, we're getting handed to us on a platter a chance to remove a longstanding enemy regime. It's an easy call.
Actually, our present military with it's current technology can perform feats that we only dreamt of in past decades. It's not about scale; it's about precision and speed. Our only actual rival is China, and they have significant problems of their own that at least rival ours. We should play to our strengths and exploit our rivals' weaknesses.
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