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Culture War Roundup for the week of January 12, 2026

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This is an extremely difficult question to answer. My personal position is that this was done because US and Israeli interceptor missile stocks were being depleted at far too rapid a pace, and I believe that this is the best explanation for the evidence we have access to. But I don't think it is possible to really make a firm determination on this either way, because the evidence needed to make a definitive statement is classified and/or not available to the public. Given recent reports (of unknown veracity) that Israel promised Russia they wouldn't attack Iran, I find this claim at least plausible - but not enough that I can give an actual answer I would bet money on.

Problem with this argument is that Israel was blasting away at Iran's launchers pretty well. They were conducting bombing missions when Trump demanded Israel stop pummeling Iran.

The obvious answer from the timing is that Trump judged bombing Fordow "mission accomplished" and so he gave in to the Vance wing of the administration to stop warmongering. Plus he does want that Nobel Prize.

Israel and Iran via Russia reportedly agreed to not attack each other, before these protests started, but while Israel wanted to blast Hezbollah some more. So what do you think the expiration date on that will be? Pretty soon I bet.

Problem with this argument is that Israel was blasting away at Iran's launchers pretty well.

Were they? The entire point of my argument is that we don't actually know this, and can't unless you have access to classified information from inside the Israeli government. How many Iranian missiles/drones made it through the iron dome? What are the remaining numbers of Iranian missiles vs Israeli interceptors? Israel banned people from posting photos of missile impact sites, and it isn't like we can trust reports from Iran about what was going on either. All we can do is make guesses on the basis of the evidence we do have, and that's what I based my evaluation on. That said, if you do have access to a comprehensive damage report from within the Israeli or Iranian government, please do post it here!