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Notes -
First and second generation minorities is an odd phrase. First generation immigrant makes sense, but minority and immigrant are not synonyms.
As it happens, among US-born people (including second gens immigrants), all racial groups have roughly the same TFR, except Asians, who are consistently lower. African Americans have recently fallen below Euro-Americans and are falling fast, which suggests that they may end up with Asian-level TFR soon enough, since their low numbers are already artificially inflated due to higher birth rates among African and Caribbean immigrants.* First gen Asian immigrants have extremely low fertility.
Hispanic TFR is higher among immigrants, but it is overstated due to how it is measured. Since the numerator is babies born, while the denominator is young women legally in the country, illegal immigrants having anchor babies makes the hispanic immigrant TFR look higher than it really is.
With Trump's immigration crackdown reducing illegal immigration from Latin America, it wouldn't shock me if we start seeing white births increasing as a share of all US births in the next couple of years.
*African American wages are actually increasing significantly between generations due to the relatively elite nature of African and Caribbean immigration. Apparently the Great Replacement also involves replacing low-IQ 'native' African Americans with high-IQ Nigerians and Jamaicans!
IIRC we’ve already seen white births increase as a fraction of all births in the USA.
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