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Notes -
If we go full Challenger Appendix F - what are the real odds of something going sideways during the mission? Polymarket prices that at 12% at the moment, but that is absurdly high.
Interesting, I was wondering the same thing while writing the comment and my gut reaction was "10%". And yes, that is absurdly high. But there's no margin for error with the heat shield, and as far as I understood the reporting at the time the battery failure would also not have been survivable. Years ago, I'd have said NASA knows the risk models, and they wouldn't send astronauts on a P(death)=0.1 mission. But man, have they squandered their technical integrity and credibility on this project.
And don't get me wrong, the mission with those constraints coming from congress was difficult. It might have been impossible. But I would have expected to see high level resignations at NASA left and right until they got something that could make the trip to the surface and back without failing during tests.
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