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Notes -
One of the minor weekly dramas in my corner of X, the everything app, had to do with this tweet by Flesh Simulator, where he states that
(Flesh Simultor is a somewhat popular youtuber who specializes in talking about existing conspiracy theories and seems to be one of the few actually heterodox leftists, combining stuff like rabid support for socialized healthcare and the Palestinian cause with reluctant support for ICE even after the MN shootings, but that is not directly relevant to the current micro-drama)
In response he got hundreds of quote tweets and replies from people who called the 25% estimate comically unrealistic, mixed with MTF-run accounts suggesting that he is a "repressor" (someone who, in trans slang, feels gender dysphoria, but chooses not to transition due to various fears) because, again, no way a normal cis man would think that 25% of fellow men would press the "magically change one's sex" button. That seemingly caused FleshSim to backpedal a bit, stating that his estimate assumed that the button could be used to change your sex back, but my impression is that the original tweet was supposed to mean a one-way ticket to womanhood.
I was very surprised by that reaction to the tweet, because I'd give around the same estimate. My impression always was that if a "magically change biological sex" button was on the menu, the world, or at least the developed parts of it, would be at a 35:65 M:F split within a year or so. Basically, the real world would turn into what you see in most MMOs – almost all women would stay women, but a significant minority of men would choose to become women as well.
Now, I'm far from unbiased here, given that, I, for one, would absolutely press such a button. While I have no plans of transitioning IRL and belong to the 95% that are "still fine" living as the sex I was born as, my post history has me admitting to being a weeby sperg who does not feel much of a connection to his IRL body and physical reality and spends most of my time on the computer, so me choosing to press the button is probably not exactly surprising. But still, I just fail to see FleshSim's 25% conjecture as particularly outlandish. Surely, the quote tweets are all just signalling, and the share of people who'd press the button's gotta be at least in the double-digits, right?
So I ask you, minds of The Motte, what's your best guess about the percentages of men and women that would press the magical "change biological sex" button (for the purposes of the experiment, the button, due to being magical, also solves minor accompanying issues such as getting the new legal name on documents, etc.) if it was freely available?
One piece missing from this conversation seems to be an unstated assumption related to this. Most MMO female characters are hot, statistically speaking most MMO players are not. Attractiveness of biological females with bad nutrition, physical activity, and other habits usually suffer more than males with equivalent habits.
Suppose you maintain life habits that guarantee physical fitness, looks remain a question to ponder. I suspect it is much nicer to live as a man with average to below average facial and other genetically determined attractiveness than as a woman with average to below average equivalents. Unattractive men who have no clear deformations are usually unremarkable and forgettable, unattractive women often stand out.
If the magic button turned men to hot women, perhaps I could see relatively high rate of men doing it. 25% sounds ridiculous if it is permanent. 5%, perhaps. Would drop after the first wave who really want it, get it immediately, then dwindles down after the first reports of menopause, periods, and other unpleasantness of female biology come in. If it is reversible and guaranteed attractiveness, it might develop into a 25%+ tier popular kink.
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