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PaperclipPerfector  6d ago (text post)   20970 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of February 23, 2026

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What bargaining table? They had a deal yen years ago but Trump broke it. Trump can't stick to deals he makes; why would anyone trust him to hold up his end?

They had a deal yen years ago but Trump broke it.

Well, the obvious answer would be that Trump wants a better deal.

Ten years ago (2016) Trump was still in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (a deal he did not make). Trump withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018 after Israel published evidence that Iran had not come clean about a past nuclear weapons program, as required by JCPOA. Therefore, unless either my (very surface-level) understanding of what JCPOA requires is incorrect or Israel's documents are fraudulent, it seems trivially true that Iran violated the deal and likely went into it under false pretenses.

This does not necessarily mean that withdrawing from the JCPOA was a good idea, but it also seems like perhaps, under the circumstances, skepticism about the ability to honor agreements might be better directed at Iran, which plausibly entered the deal with no intent to honor it.

That was my point. If the violations were immaterial, there was no reason to cancel the old deal. If the violations were material, then there's no reason to believe they would honor a new deal.

There were ongoing diplomatic negotiations in Geneva up until yesterday. The BBC reported yesterday that an observer claimed "significant progress" in the talks. Whether the US was negotiating in good faith is up for debate.

Negotiations require that both sides understand what the BATNA is.

...and peace requires both parties to be agreeable.

Iran was already on the back foot, if one is of the opinion that Iran was not trying to negotiate a peace but rather negotiate themselves sufficient breathing space to regroup and resume combat at a later date, it would be foolish not to press the attack while the regime is weak.

I think it's not just about being weak, but about accurately assessing your relative position.

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