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The big refugee wave from Israel's warmongering was Syria. It was a disaster for Europe. Luckily Ben Gvir failed and we did not get a major exodus from Gaza. Fundamentally Israel got stuck in a forever war it can't win. They aren't really managing to expel large numbers of people or win. They are stuck in a permanent state of emergency. Israel today is like the French in Algeria 70 years ago. They can't really win, they kill a lot of people and they are burning political capital at a high rate.
Israel is not going to collapse any time soon. Untenable states can hang on for some time. With that said a country that small can't be stuck in a permanent state of emergency and function. Rhodesia, South Vietnam and French Algeria seemed stable and were stable for a long stretch of time even though they had no way of functioning in the long term. Hamas isn't seizing Tel Aviv next month and Iran isn't going to eliminate them with missiles. It is going to be a slow long grind.
The more wars and the more chaos we have in the middle east the harder it is to repatriate migrants and the higher the risk of migrant flows is. We need stable regimes in the middle east, not forever wars.
Well, I'm going to stop you right there. How exactly is a civil war between Assad and ISIS the fault of Israel?
All of the remaining commentary is interesting, sure – but can you concede the original point, that "a refugee crisis on Europe's doorstep" simply did not happen as a result of the most recent conflict in Gaza, and hence that it is profoundly unlikely that engineering such a crisis was Israel's intention while prosecuting said war?
Israel was pushing hard for sanctions and destablization in Syria. Israel backed jihadists in Syria, bombed Syria and were actively trying to undermine it.
Okay. So has your claim shifted from "Israel's primary goal in prosecuting their war in Gaza is to engineer a massive refugee crisis on Europe's doorstep" to "Israel has already engineered a massive refugee crisis on Europe's doorstep"?
Because I think the shelf life on the former claim has conclusively expired, and you should stop making it, because it's dumb.
Fundamentally Israel failed in Gaza. They couldn't ethnically cleanse it.
Israel ethnically cleansed Gaza in 2005; Gaza is pretty much ethnically spotless. If you mean genocide, say so.
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"Failure" implies that ethnically cleansing it was their goal in the first place. Maybe both of the ulterior motives you claimed for their war in Gaza were just inaccurate?
Israel consistently claimed that their goals were to destroy Hamas and recover the Israeli hostages. For the last two and a half years you insisted that this was just window dressing, and their real goal was to engineer a massive refugee crisis on Europe's doorstep and/or ethnically cleanse Gaza of all Palestinians.
Your predicted refugee crisis never materialised, and millions of Palestinians still live in Gaza. Meanwhile, the majority of the hostages have been recovered, and Hamas has taken a severe beating. As a consequence, the war is winding down, consistent with Israel having achieved its stated aims.
Doesn't this strongly suggest that you were simply mistaken in your apprehension of Israel's real aims?
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