Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.
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I can't help but think none of what we're seeing now would have happened if not for October 7 attacks. If that didn't happen, Hamas would still be in full force and capacity in Gaza, and so would be Hezbollah. If that were the case, Israel might not dare to attack Iran and destroy their nuclear facilities, fearing retribution from Hamas and Hezbollah - which now are sunk costs, as Israel already was forced to wage the war, endure the consequences and emerge victorious. It would also not stimulate the huge wave of antisemitism in the West, exposing the antisemitic nature of the woke left. That cost Democrats up to a million Jewish votes. Who knows, maybe other votes too - enough that without that happening, Harris might have even won. And then of course the possibility of any US action against Iran would be out of the question. But even if Harris did not win, for Trump would be much harder to justify attacking Iran without clear evidence of any "hot" action from their side - if Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, etc. were quiet, how could the "peacemaker" Trump initiate the war? Without Israel & US strikes, the protestors probably would not feel as emboldened as they did recently, and would not initiate the wave of protests that triggered the current situation. Thus, Iranians would be quietly and secretly building the bomb, and Trump would conduct endless "talks" - like he is doing now with Russia - without and result. Instead, a lot of their government are now dead, and those who alive may soon face the wrath of the revolutionary mobs.
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