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Notes -
Iran is clearly a much bigger nut to crack
The administration has already said it won't be that short -- September is what I heard yesterday
Any requirement for action now due to nuclear progress (which the administration has claimed) demonstrates the previous intervention was not very successful. I don't really believe this intervention was necessary to keep Iran from getting the bomb in the immediate future, but obviously I have no access to the data on that; I just assume if a government official's lips are moving he's probably lying.
There doesn't seem to be a useful exit. Unlike Venezuela, there's no lower-down officials more willing to play ball. Nor any rebels -- the protestors turned out to be the equivalent of right-wing militias and the Minneapolis people, all noise and no ability for real action when push comes to shove. Reza Palahvi, unsuprisingly, has nothing. Everyone who can fight is aligned with the Islamic regime. The normal way to handle such a situation (which is a typical one in war) is a land invasion, but the US claims it won't do that. And certainly it would be quite messy if it happened.
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