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I love your name btw
I don't entirely understand your comment, but reading it though the lens of "Tintin thinks the market is underpricing oil stocks" helps
To your bullets
my assumption is that the market is generally good at pricing things, so given the stocks aren't up, it's likely (not guaranteed) that the gang knows things I don't. This is a low bar as I don't know much about the oil industry. I just know a lot about finance and valuations in general.
in that hypothetical I would be quite confused actually as that seems like a windfall of "the resource you're extracting is nore expensive now, your costs are the same, party time". I was able to come up with a plausible reason the oil stocks haven't gone up right now, I got none for my Ukranian oil shortage one. I could just be biasing my own ideas, but I'm at a loss.
that kind of supports my thesis that the increased margin (which should lead to higher stock valuation) is being offset by the damage and risk to their oil assets?
A totally fun aside, while I'm generally a supporter of the weak-form efficient market hypothesis, an incredible counter point to it has been the SAASpocolypse. All the information causing the SAASpocolypse was theoretically known in late Nov 2025 and was painfully obvious over Christmas break when everyone on Twitter started posting about vibe coding. But the selloff didn't start until ~Jan 29. Huge hit to the EMH.
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