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Notes -
What would you expect to see, looking back from 2030, in worlds where the war went well and accomplished what you were hoping it would? What would instead make you think the war was a mistake, in retrospect?
Obviously on the flip side of that, the modal "no war, and it went badly" world probably looks to me like "Iran got nukes, and used them".
I don't think the outcome determines whether or not the action taken today means it's a mistake or not.
But I get the spirit of the question.
Went well: Iran has a revolution and re-establishes a stable constitutional monarchy.
Less well: becomes a bombed out basket case like Syria and can't really threaten anyone geopolitically and is only a drain on our adversaries if they want to help at all.
Bad: we get bored or lose our nerve and pull out and the Muslim theocrats re-affirm control and get nukes.
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