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PaperclipPerfector  1d ago (text post)   198 thread views

Transnational Thursday for March 19, 2026

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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There is no long term plan clearly expressed at this point. Right now there are three outcomes that have been mooted by Trump and Co at different times:

  1. Regime change/the people finally rise up: Iran's government falls. USA makes a deal with the new Iranian government (s) to get everything moving again. Goes to Trump's calls for unconditional surrender.

  2. The United States gets bored and leaves, as Trump threatened yesterday. The gulf countries probably make a deal with Iran to pay tolls to get Hormuz open.

  3. USA is able to brute force destroy Iran's ability to harm vessels in the strait, and traffic resumes. The air war may continue more or less indefinitely, with Iran slowly ground down but the islamists maintaining power over the rubble. Iran becomes increasingly irrelevant. Goes to Trump's plans for naval escorts and island threats.

I'm not sure which seems likely at this point.

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