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Notes -
The US could be substantially harmed by the closure of the Hormuz Strait if we decide that it's a good idea to short crude oil futures and then the market moves against us.
Well you could just not try shorting oil futures in the first place, that's a pretty zany strategy. In fact, American oil/LNG companies stand to gain BIGLY from all this. Russia is banned, Iran is being destroyed, Qatar is already 20% down for the next 3-5 years, the Strait is closed. Your commodity exports are going to the moon.
The US actually temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil that is currently at sea. I think they see the global price of oil as the political limitation on their ability to wage the war at all and so they're taking steps to keep oil prices down even if it means giving money to the regime they're fighting.
Well yes, that's prudent to smooth out the shock, but in the longer term the US is entrenching its position as a fossil fuel producer and exporter.
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