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Notes -
...according to Iran. Conveniently, Iran has graciously extended its permission to every ship that has tried the crossing and succeeded. On the ground there are many ships that have made the crossing, such as some Greek oil tankers. Everything is down from where it was a month ago but the strait is not entirely closed because Iran's capacity to project its will is no longer there. It can harass ships and increase the risk, and that only temporarily.
The major question is not whether America will guarantee the straits but how they will do it. Right now it seems likeliest that they will negotiate a deal with Iran's remaining leadership simultaneous with an international fleet as a show of force. But if we wanted to we could always go back to bombing Iran into the stone age etc.
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