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If they were allowed to do so, I don't see why not. Of course that would get Polymarket shut down. I would guess that it currently is mostly insiders and anti-US Westerners. There might be front groups or pro-Iranian NGOs betting, but I'd expect that to eventually get Polymarket shut down too.
There was a run on put options on airlines in the stock market just before 9/11.
Normies don't do that. You get a couple of weird people betting based on statistics, and everyone else betting based on who they like or hate. (Plus insiders, if applicable.) The way gambling has worked in practice does not show statistical literacy among the vast majority of people who bet. (And it isn't just the 20% with the lowest cognitive capacity, either.) The only cases where most people who bet on something bet based on statistics (without being insiders) are those which have huge barriers to entry that prevent everyone else from betting.
I reckon you think that normie tolerance for autistic behavior is a lot higher than it really is. They may be offended by the word, but they hold autistically based opinions in contempt.
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