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Yes, reach is a bitch. Based on limited personal experience, a large height gap strongly overcomes a muscle gap. Top tier athlete/power lifter might swing the balance back, I would guess, and all of this is assuming no particular training discrepancy, but a foot+ of height advantage is massive.
Wow that's crazy wouldn't have thought height gap mattered more than muscle gap.
I had almost this exact scenario come up once, in the last real fight I got into in high school. A short guy who had spent the last year getting jacked, after my 6'+ ass quit all sports and devoted the previous year to D&D and Warhammer. He hit me with a sucker punch while I was kneeling at my locker, and then let me get up for a proper fight... and then didn't land another hit. It honestly felt easy. He just has so much further for each punch to travel. It felt like I had so much time and space to react.
Put it this way: I had to angle down slightly to punch him in the face, and if my fist was hitting him at full extension, then his fist was whiffing inches short of my chest.
There's probably some ratio where things flip. A height gap of 3" wouldn't matter like that. But a foot or more? It's like an adult versus a tween. Would have to be a hell of a tween. And again, training or skill differential will matter more. My examples are "teenage idiot versus teenage idiot".
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