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Notes -
No peace deal with Iran
Can I just point out that 21 hours seems too short for negotiations? I don't think the talks were done in earnest, at all. The 150-page JCPOA took almost 2 years of frivolous negotiations and lasted just as long. A 21 hour session in the middle of an active conflict is not very likely to reach a better equilibrium that both parties are happy with. Iran carried bloodstained schoolbags of kids killed in the Minab strike on the flight to Pakistan, they were certainly not there to surrender. I suspect the administration (or at least Vance) already knew this, and deliberately structured one-sided terms intended to be rejected so Trump can attempt building political scaffolding for escalation and blame Iran ("Look, we offered Iran a peace deal and they chose not to accept it"). Meanwhile, the Israelis have been busy!
Between accepting one of the greatest strategic defeats in decades, and trying to prosecute a horrific war amidst historic energy and food prices, we remain stuck with the latter.
The problem here is that there are 3 sides: Israel, Iran and the US. The US would like to walk away with something (like destroying the Iranian nuclear program or getting money from Hormuz) but needs Iran's cooperation. Iran was just decapitated, has rationally no trust in the other two parties (trust in the Trumpian US is stupid, viz. the tariff saga and Israel is out for blood) and has leverage over Hormuz, whether the US likes that or not. Israel really likes this war and is seemingly not that bothered about the energy thing. I know a few Israelis quite well, it's a very martial society (and controversially, starts to resemble its neighbours more and more as it becomes less Ashkenazi).
There not being war and there being a negotiated settlement would require both the US (doubtful) and Israel (extremely doubtful) to back off. Iran would need credible guarantees that they aren't in for another decapitation strike etc.
However the markets seem to be pricing in at least a decent chance of some resolution and the Iranians also want the oil to flow eventually. The US can probably save face by just fucking off, but Israel is a different kettle of fish.
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