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Notes -
It is not surprising that Republican voters voted for the Republican candidate. My point there is that the subset of non-Republican Trump supporters is relatively small. The subset of unenthusiastic non-Republican Trump supporters is necessarily even smaller. Combine this with the fact that Trump's approval amongst Republicans remains stratospheric and we can safely discard the idea that Trump's supporters generally saw themselves as holding their nose to pick the least bad option.
(FWIW, despite motioning towards it earlier I think the idea that voters are mostly picking from among perceived least bad options isn't really true; the people talking like this are a loud minority of cynics trying to rationalize their decision making)
That poll is from the beginning of March. As far as I can tell it has mostly bounced back amongst Republicans while falling elsewhere.
Well, my model of human behaviour is such that even if people hold their nose to vote for a candidate at first, people tend to then talk themselves into that choice being right. Once you're in a coalition, you tend to rationalise that coalition to yourself and align along all its issues. If you are, for instance, a single-issue voter on abortion, you will nonetheless probably talk yourself into adopting the rest of the Democrat/Republican platforms over time, even if only to minimise cognitive dissonance.
So I would tend to expect a Republican who reluctantly talked himself into voting for Trump in 2016 to have, over the next decade, talked himself into being more generally supportive of Trump.
However, I would nonetheless suggest that most presidents win office with the votes of people who do not see themselves as 'X voters', or as being part of a tribe or coalition that same way. People who identify as Republicans are likely to vote for Trump, and have done that, and as the Republican party increasingly Trumpifies, talk themselves into liking Trump as well. But Trump didn't win with that group alone. He won with the independent vote - he increased his share of the independent vote from 41% in 2020 to 46% in 2024, and since independents are somewhere in between a quarter (in 2020) and a third of voters (in 2024), that is significant.
My guess would be that independents are much more likely to have grudgingly voted for a least-bad candidate than party members. If they were genuinely enthused for a candidate, they would probably just join the party. My guess would also be that independents are likely to be among the quickest to drop support for a president. Trump's declining approval rating is likely primarily seen among independents and moderates - both firm Democrats and firm Republicans have their minds made up and won't change their perspective.
What this adds up to me is the conclusion that there is a significant chunk of people, disproportionately independent, who voted for Trump unenthusiastically, and have since gone off him.
How many is 'significant'? I don't know. In 2024 Trump won 49.8% of the vote, and at present 39.7% of people, according to Nate Silver's poll, approve of him. There's some noise, since these surveys and polls aren't restricted to voters, but just as an estimate, this would suggest somewhere around 10% of the American population voted for Trump and then changed their mind and now think he's doing a bad job. That would also suggest that around a fifth, 20% or so, of Trump's own voters have since gone off him.
There's obviously a margin of error there (what about people who voted for Harris but have since decided that Trump is doing a good job, and started to approve of him? such people would be very weird but there's probably more than zero), but I think it's a reasonable speculation. Say it's less than this, that's fine. If 15% of people who voted for Trump in 2024 now disapprove of his job performance, I'd still say that's a decent chunk of voters.
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