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I want to point out the cynical case- trans activists are terrible allies and abandoning them could easily be the woke coalition telling its most difficult members to know their place, not the decline of woke.
Trans activists are demanding, high drama, unsympathetic(at a basic level, they’re mentally ill people who look like either very ugly women or very weak men, which is not a very high status thing to be or something that finds it easy to garner sympathy), have no real message discipline, and tend to overextend themselves picking fights that they then expect to be bailed out of. ‘Teaching these people to be team players’ could very well take the form of letting them lose a few battles and telling them to deal with it.
Write like everyone is reading and you want them to be included in the discussion. What I take to be your substantive point (progressives may simply be giving their least-popular allies a strategic time-out) is surely worth consideration, but making a laundry list of negative stereotypes about your outgroup still isn't allowed here.
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I was thinking about this the other day. "High drama" is a descriptive that fits most of the progressive Left's current "intersectional" favorites. While the left of my youth used to be represented in the US by the likes of Ralph Nader and Noam Chomsky, who conformed to The Motte's rules of discourse as naturally as right-wingers like William F. Buckley -- politics was very much like parents having a tense but polite discussion -- the last 10-15 years has seen the left's energy usurped by young gay-adjacent easily triggered women and minorities, which is a coalition of high drama 24/7. The right, starting with Trump, is certainly attempting to match them. That's why the culture war has erupted from the relatively staid discourse of the 1990s-2000s to the Clown World: The Musical show were are getting now, and why Trans activists were able to slip right in without tripping many center-left normy alarms. The volume was already turned up to their level.
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