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(2) and (3) seem pretty accurate. I'd disagree strongly on (1): the Democrats' failure in 2024 was in no small part because they failed to communicate their successes to the electorate. Unless you were watching closely, the Biden administration appeared to be merely keeping the government going and not rocking the boat. Policies on the left can be sold as popular. People on the left regularly claim polling shows their policies are popular as long as you don't use use language pattern-matching to existing right-wing attacks on them. The problem is the Democrats either don't try or aren't good at it. And they try to fight any candidate that is good at it like Mamdani.
I don't see the evidence for a Democrat messaging failure.
Bidens signature moves were his big spending bill, which kept inflation high, and his open border which was incredibly unpopular. He also let Russia invade Ukraine, and didn't fire a single general for the botched Afghanistan pull out, indicating to everyone he intended it to go poorly.
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