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PaperclipPerfector  2d ago (text post)   1662 thread views

Friday Fun Thread for May 1, 2026

Be advised: this thread is not for serious in-depth discussion of weighty topics (we have a link for that), this thread is not for anything Culture War related. This thread is for Fun. You got jokes? Share 'em. You got silly questions? Ask 'em.

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I'm not really familiar with Nick Bostrom. I did some googling and all I could find on him and the Sleeping Beauty problem was this paper from 2006

https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:44102720-3214-4515-ad86-57aa32c928c7/files/m379c32004c01471b53b6585c11231418

which upon skimming just seems to be him getting massively confused. He keeps inventing new variants of the problem which change certain important premises and then taking them seriously as if them obviously not being 1/3 has some bearing on the original problem which doesn't have those premises. But he comes to the conclusion at the end that both the standard 1/3 and 1/2 views are wrong, but doesn't come to a clear answer himself.

Is there more recent work or posts from him committing to 1/2? Twenty years ago is a long time and I assume he's said more since then.

You're right that he's a bit cagey about it, but if you dig-in you can find what he would actually guess if you drugged him and ran the experiment.

"The 1/3-view is right that Beauty’s posterior credence in HEADS after being informed that it is Monday should be one-half. The 1/2-view is right that Beauty’s prior credence in HEADS, after awakening but before learning that it is Monday, should be one-half."

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