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Small-Scale Question Sunday for May 3, 2026

Do you have a dumb question that you're kind of embarrassed to ask in the main thread? Is there something you're just not sure about?

This is your opportunity to ask questions. No question too simple or too silly.

Culture war topics are accepted, and proposals for a better intro post are appreciated.

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Yet markets seem surprisingly stable

Not only are they stable, the global stock market (as measured by VT)—the aggregation of forward-looking, skin-in-the-game outlooks for the world economy—closed two days in a row for record highs on Thursday and Friday. This is on the tails of having just hit a then-record high about two weeks ago prior.

We're now up about 2.7% since before the war begin, which is a good return for a two-month span. On the country level, it has been well-demonstrated empirically (thus, confirming the theoretical expectation) that stock market returns are a strong predictor of future GDP growth, and the global stock market is just the collection of country stock markets across the world.