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"If I claim it's throwing the trans population under the bus then that means it's actually throwing them under the bus." You're assuming a shared moral framework here that very much does not exist. A trans woman is a man pretending to be a woman, or a man who has a mental illness causing him to think he is a woman. Someone who has a mental illness causing them to think they are Napoleon isn't thrown under the bus when I refuse to use taxpayer money to help them invade Russia.
He is, however, arguably thrown under the bus if you insist on locking him in a facility with a population whose notorious Napoleon fetish causes them to brutally rape any transnapoleonics they can get their hands on, which is what I think Celestial meant. (Of course, this line of reasoning could imply that effeminate gay men shouldn't be jailed with regular male inmates, regardless of their gender identification.)
If he doesn't want to get thrown in the Napoleon-rape cage then all he has to do is not commit crime and/or invade Russia.
This amounts to an argument that it's good, actually, that they're getting thrown under the bus. We're quite a ways away from "they aren't being thrown under the bus, they're no more oppressed than any other men".
No, I just see preventing prison rape for mtf trannies as no higher of a priority than preventing it for non-trans male prisoners. It's something we should work to reduce, but frankly I don't see many practical ways to accomplish it, especially not without using resources that could be better spent elsewhere. I place a much higher priority on preventing the rape of biological women in prisons, and keeping mtf tranny criminals far the fuck away from them seems like one of the most practical and inexpensive ways to reduce that.
I think we may have identified a crux: I actually agree with you that protecting MTFs from prison rape shouldn't be higher-priority than preventing it for regular men - but I don't agree that protecting cis women from rape is inherently higher-priority than protecting men from it. I think the rape of a man is as much of a tragedy and a moral outrage as the rape of a woman, women just tend to be more vulnerable to rape in the general population and thus get the bulk of the attention. So, insofar as I'm trying to decrease the number of overall rapes among prisoners, instead of valuing the rape of female prisoners 'higher', your way of thinking seems to trade a possibility that a trans inmate could rape female prisoners against a near-certainty that the trans inmate will themself be raped by male prisoners - which looks like a very bad deal, utilitarianistically.
The fact that women are physically weaker and hence more vulnerable than men (and don't give me some nonsense about how this disparity is only visible at the extremes: the average man is stronger than 99% of women) is why protecting women from rape is a higher priority for me than protecting men. Accuse me of being flippant or cheeky if you must, but this really is an instance of "from each according to his ability, to each according to his need": we have a special responsibility to protect those most vulnerable to harm. Women being violently raped is seen as an especially heinous crime for much the same reason that children being violently raped is, or elderly people, or physically disabled people: because these groups are uniquely vulnerable and poorly equipped to defend themselves.
ChickenOverlord seemed to be saying a much less anodyne thing - that even if, in fact, a lot more MTF prisoners get raped than bio-female ones, protecting the cis women is always, axiomatically, a higher priority. This is quite different from the heuristic you describe, which breaks down in a context where (a specific subcategory of) men are, for whatever reason, at an elevated risk of rape too. If we afford free women special protection out in the world because they're especially likely to be raped, we should afford MTF convicts special protection in prison because they are especially likely to be raped.
Well, that's the question isn't it – are they?
And as I've argued repeatedly over the last few days, how do you propose to distinguish between the legitimately dysphoric who've been cross-dressing for as long as they've been able to dress themselves (whom, naïvely, I would expect to have a particularly tough time in prison), and the opportunists who only "discovered" they were trans post-conviction? Because, to be frank, I don't think "Isla" Bryson would face an elevated risk of sexual assault in prison compared to the modal prisoner. (I do think he would be unusually likely to commit a sexual assault on another prisoner, whether male or female, but that's neither here nor there.)
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