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I’d like to take a moment to discuss the present and future of the Republican Party within the United States, specifically as it pertains to how a post-Maga consensus and organization may emerge.
Following the Afghanistan and Iraq interventions by then president George W. Bush, public sentiment had largely turned against what is colloquially known as the Neo-Cons, largely exacerbated by media outrage and Democratic politicians lambasting said interventions as wastes of time, lives and initiated upon faulty grounds. In spite of both operations being successful in toppling the reigning dictatorial regimes within the respective middle eastern countries, they were predominantly framed as failures both internally within and without. Largely as a result of this antagonism, a countermovement emerged within the Republican Party, led by Donald Trump which sought to subvert not only the Neo-Con interventionist stance, but also the Atlanticist and pro-NATO foreign policy which had dominated the party since the second world war, in favor of an “America First” way of thinking.
The result of his tenure as president, both first and second term combined has largely been to the disappointment of many, even the many hardliners within the party as the man in question proved unable to deliver on his many promises such as bringing manufacturing back to the Rust Belt (of which tariffs could not abate the decay), the end of Free Trade as a means of lowering prices back home (the former is arguably a success, the latter is not), and in ending foreign entanglements (more on this below). The GOP all the same has become almost entirely captivated by his personage, and outside of Trump, there is little consensus among Republican politicians and political theorists as to the path the party ought to follow. What is clear however, is that his rule has largely been to the detriment of the country, especially as it pertains to America’s relationship with its allies in NATO, and as it pertains to its capability to project force abroad.
The recent conflict with Iran underlines this point quite clearly. Unlike the War on Terror, which successfully managed to overthrow tyrannical regimes stoking Islamist sentiment within the region, the American military has failed to effectively incapacitate Iran’s nuclear enrichment capabilities (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-how-many-nuclear-bombs-b2967811.html), nor has it effectively weakened the regime sufficiently for a popular uprising to topple it. Whether this is solely due to an atrophying of the military industrial complex, the lack of cooperation and involvement with allied countries via NATO, Trump hamstringing the army and navy due to his obsession with “making deals” or any number of other possible explanations (never mind the possibility of it being all of the above), it is quite clear that as of now the USA is in no position to contest the globe with the likes of China or Russia. Only once these industries are revitalized, the military let of its leash and true cooperation established once more within NATO can this problem be resolved, and that’ll require an end to this Maga experiment and Donald Trump’s hold over the party.
A sentiment which has become increasingly prominent over these past few years of Maga influence is the need for a revitalized GOP, capable of once more cooperating across the aisle with their Democratic counterparts for the betterment of America as a whole. Pelosi echoed this sentiment in 2024 (https://www.npr.org/2024/08/07/nx-s1-5058779/pelosi-says-we-need-a-strong-gop-and-that-this-one-is-a-cult-to-a-thug), noting the significant differences between prior Republican leaders and Trump, as well as the need for “a strong GOP”. Obama has similarly noted the need for a post Trump consensus last week (https://www.huffpost.com/entry/barack-obama-worried-democrats-republicans-gobbledygook_n_69fb66d0e4b0cb033e4de37a), which will require a rehabilitation of some sort for the past of the GOP, one which can only begin once we look past populist politics. Hasan, perhaps unsurprisingly in response to Obama’s words, said he wanted “no Republican party”, which is perhaps indicative of the conflicting interests between the two groups.
This goal of a strong GOP, as stated, will require a reexamination of past Republican politicians and presidents, and a more generous way of assessing their successes and failures. This work however has already begun, and was most notable during the campaign of Kamala Harris. Her campaigning with Liz Cheney, the fact that Dick Cheney prior to his death voted for her (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/dick-cheney-kamala-harris-liz-cheney-rcna169979), and Liz’s attempt at getting George W. Bush to endorse Harris (https://www.thedailybeast.com/liz-cheney-tells-george-w-bush-to-endorse-kamala-harris-its-time/) shows that there is a significant desire among the moderates of the GOP to escape the influence of Magaist politics. Naturally, how exactly this transformation of the party will take place after Trump leaves the White House is purely speculative, and doubtless there’ll be those who'll seek to emulate his success. However, I believe there is sufficient reason to assert that broad, consensus-based politics will once more emerge within America, which’ll hopefully initiate a process of rebuilding for the damages the last decade of Trumpist politics have inflicted on the nation.
The future of the GoP is now.
The post 2020 GoP is essentially a center-right populist party with mercantilist tendencies, and is only remarkable insofar as our intellectual class has strayed so far out into the weeds that moderate center-right politics appear incomprehensible to them.
If anything MAGA can be understood in part as Republicans re-embracing their mid-century role as the big-tent party after spending much of the 90s and early 2000s/GWoT era in the wilderness.
The East-coast populists and Sothern Tea-party coalition allied to wrest control of the party from the old Rockefeller-style corporatists, the Evangelicals started out defending their long-time allies on the corporatist right but their support had been wavering due to perceived betrayals on abortion and LGBTQ issues. 2020 ended and the lockdowns killed that alliance for good leaving the corporatists on the outs. Cheney's dead, the populists are setting the agenda, and while the Evangelicals might grumble about Trump's lack of couth, they appreciate having the populists' support on issues like abortion and school choice.
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