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I wouldn’t necessarily say it’s ironic. I would say that I think the war was foolish and probably avoidable. And that Ukraine could have easily ended up like Turkey, balancing NATO and Russian interests and getting rich in the process. I also think that Russia will win, barring some major black swan like NATO overtly entering the war with ground troops, nuclear weapons, Russian economic collapse, etc.
That’s not necessarily because they’re low on gear, that’s just the meta in the age of drones and cheap cruise missiles. This is how Ukraine fights now too after their larger scale tactics failed. Ironically, it’s a hell of a lot like what everyone in the 1950s predicted the nuclear age battlefield would like: everything done with small units because big assaults would get zotted with tactical devices. Ukraine and Russia are actually adapting a lot of their old Soviet nuclear land battle strategies for the Ukraine war.
I really don’t think this is true. Russia has made major advances in the south, and around Kramantorsk, and some new fronts in the North. Ukraine has done a genuinely good job of reducing the Kupyansk cauldron these past few months, which is a good example of what they could have achieved more of if they hadn’t wasted three years and a trillion dollars trying to LARP the Fulda Gap.
Well, I guess we'll have to wait and see for the next quarterly update then, or another couple, to resolve much of our differences.
Has anything recently made you update in favor of Ukraine? You were making very strong predictions that they were on the ropes, and they should be collapsing around now right? Pokrovsk fell, they lost their key logistics hub by your analysis, but Russia is literally stuck there. Anything at all updating you away from your maximalist Russia will take Lviv pitch? Russia seems to be seeking terms well below that, and are messaging internally to that effect, maybe they know something you do not?
And, I can reply to all you posted above if you care, but on a specific point you must know it's pure distilled cope that Russia's doctrine now of tiny foot infiltration is anything other than desperation and a lack of any other choice? Like, you posted:
That's not even close to Soviet nuclear doctrine, which was deeply mechanized (the BMP was designed for their conception of a nuclear battlefield, famously) and focused on rapid maneuver of units at least at battalion strength, though moving at greater dispersion prior to contact and concentrating again before the attack. I know that, others reading know that, and you must know that. Why bother posting it?
On a lighter note, any predictions for the next Dune movie, after the trailer dropped? I really liked part 1 as a Dune fan, agreed with you that part 2 massacred the character of Chani, and now they have to be back in love? Would have worked better having her be a true believer for sure. Plus, Messiah is a brutal book to adapt, seeing it's mostly politics, monologues and inner thoughts. I do love me some Dennis though, maybe he can cook up something still.
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