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Notes -
Have you ever felt, in moments where you suspect that things have gone surprisingly well for you all things considered, that you might already be living such a life?
The timing of the AI takeoff, in our (your?) lifetime, is suspicious too. A genuinely godlike experience machine could surely come up with and colour in any setting (but then its ways would be inscrutable for the simulatees); but a primitive model would probably reach for the normal human life setting that it has the most data on, which is the time just before it was created. "Most non-P-zombie human experiences are reasonably comfortable and fulfilling lives in a threshold world" is an observation that is consistent with an "AI takeover -> brief proliferation of experience machines -> end of conscious life" reality.
I think about this several times every week, and for the other reasons you mentioned too. If I really look at my life and the world around me, my most compelling conclusion would be that I'm in some kind of ~alien zoo set up to keep me stimulated and challenged but fundamentally still incredibly-blessed. I seem to get stuff everyone wants but hardly anyone has, from my wife to my career to the place I live. Amazing friends and opportunities. Amazing access to intellect and information. Too many great coincidences.
I try to be grateful and have faith in the power responsible, but it's all very confusing.
The main evidence against it is that most of the time everything is still fairly prosaic and I'm generally under enough stress to keep me hustling. But despite many horrible experiences in my past I can't think of any for which I didn't end up grateful in the long run.
Wouldn't be terribly surprised if when I die the hyper-VR rig comes off and the rest of my memories come back and I think "Holy shit that was a rush". If that happens I just hope that the people around me were real too and that we'll still have each other on that higher plane.
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