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PaperclipPerfector  1d ago (text post)   6134 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of June 15, 2026

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  1. Lebanon and Iran are negotiating together. If Israel is occupying Lebanon the straight is closed. There can't be a 2.5 year Gaza debacle with Iran blockading 13% of global oil.

  2. Israel is currently more mobilized than Ukraine or Russia. It is a country which non extremist jewish population isn't much larger than Denmark's population. They have to keep several hundred thousand soldiers mobilized continuously. Israel isn't going to be a functioning state if this is their long term trajectory. Israel's international popularity is tanking. Israel is turning into French Algeria, South Vietnam, Rhodesia and South Africa. A small state which minimal natural resources that is rapidly turning the world against it is in deep trouble. The more Israel is ethnically cleansing Christian areas, bombing Beirut and causing constant headlines about war in the middle east the less popular they become.

Lebanon and Iran are negotiating together

Is this Lebanon as in Lebanon, or Lebanon as in Hezbollah? There are at least three parties at play in the region, and the "Isn't there someone you forgot to ask?" meme feels salient for any two-party negotiations in the area.

There can't be a 2.5 year Gaza debacle with Iran blockading 13% of global oil.

Iran has been unable to maintain an effective closure of the strait; the US and the Gulf countries have been getting oil through, which along with the diversion to the Red Sea and Gulf of Oman, has kept oil prices from becoming intolerable. In a 2.5 year stalemate, there would be more pipelines outside areas Iran could effectively menace.

As for Israel, unlike South Africa and Rhodesia, it is not just going to give up.

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