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Notes -
In principle, Anthropic agrees the government should control when releases are made and models are recalled. Obviously it'd be better if this were done by some objective standard than fits of pique and grudge, but there's the world we want vs the world we have.
I mean... They should. AI is world historical in importance, and the next 2 years are more important than any years before. Paying off a goon, though distasteful, is strictly superior to e.g. destroying the world. They could probably get away with a million dollars and some nice words, even: Trump is a very cheap date. And, given the stakes, a billion would be a good deal.
Safety needs to be either the actual number one priority, in which case you sacrifice other values for it. Or, if other values trump it, then your commitment to safety is shallow, and people will rightly see advertising of it as duplicitous.
That doesn't answer why only Anthropic is considered dangerous and no other model is considering that as Yudkowsky has pointed out, anti jailbreak security that would stop dedicated foreign governments just does not exist for any of them https://x.com/allTheYud/status/2065889346302226530
Does the government just think Fable is that far ahead of the rest?
Now I do think it would most likely work if they have enough but I can also understand why they would be hesitant regardless. Giving the bully your lunch money could be a good way to incentivize him coming back for more. Still given the likely short timeline (especially if we consider in the midterms that the house will probably be lost and the Senate has a high chance too), it's likely worth it.
I, personally, am not disputing that the Trump administration is not applying objective standards here. My point is that Anthropic wants an institutional ecosystem where powerful governments select which models are safe to release to the public (a system I agree with!); you can't just push for that and then throw a hissy fit when actually existing governments do it wrong, secure in the belief that the Righteous are somehow destined to fix things.
That is everything, here. And I don't think Dario is making rational, utility maximizing calculations here: I think he has his set of values and is then applying them blindly thinking that because they are good, their blind application must be utility maximizing. That is not sufficient for the situation I (and from what I can tell, he) believe is at hand.
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