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PaperclipPerfector  2mo ago (text post)   24500 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of June 15, 2026

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Upon the signing of this MOU, the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge, for 60 days only, from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, and considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles, and demining by the Islamic Republic of Iran will be instated within 30 days.

The Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialog with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz in discussion with other Persian Gulf littoral states in line with the applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.

That only means that the wolf and a few sheep will decide on tax rates for the farm. Sovereign rights of coastal states reads like code for 'Oman can hustle in on the racket too'.

Also negotiations have already broken down as you predicted with more Trump threats, fighting in Lebanon continuing, the Israelis openly ignoring this and the straits being formally reclosed. They were never really open in the first place, fighting in Lebanon never really stopped...

That only means that the wolf and a few sheep will decide on tax rates for the farm. Sovereign rights of coastal states reads like code for 'Oman can hustle in on the racket too'.

I think you could just as easily read it as "lol no toll but you guys can have a therapy session with your neighbors to make you feel better."

negotiations have already broken down as you predicted

I would strain myself patting myself on the back for this prediction if it hadn't already happened dozens of times in the past month.

And keep in mind the MOU provides explicitly that Hormuz will be governed according to international law (point 5)

And that is means that the strait is explicitely not going to be tolled period, as it's not according to international law. Note, yes, there are points that are potentially contradictory in the MOU, because it had to be accepted by two sides that care about keeping face. What will be important is what end up actually happening.

International law is based heavily on what actually happens, it's not like real law where the rules are written down explicitly and there are at least attempts to implement them impartially. While Iran controls the straits de facto, opening and closing them as they see fit, 'international law' there bends in their direction. So there may not be a toll on transiting the straits, only administrative fees and insurance regulations. They can whip up some framework to get what they want pass a surface-level legal review.

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